The US and China have made uneven progress in fulfilling the trade commitments announced after their two leaders met in Beijing in May.
As US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping sit down in Washington this week, the question is whether their second face-to-face meeting this year can jolt their governments into moving forward on issues ranging from exports of beef and Boeing aircraft to artificial intelligence.
Modest progress is likely, but analysts don't expect any major breakthroughs from Xi's visit, which begins Thursday.
“Instead, the main deliverable really is that the trip is happening, and the symbolism and the optics of that,” said Sara Schuman, the former senior US negotiator for China trade and an adjunct fellow with the Washington-based Centre for a New American Security.
The two countries agreed in May on a framework of “constructive strategic stability”, under which they would seek to prevent disagreements from escalating. One hope is to find areas of cooperation, even if fundamental differences remain.
Positive signals on a Board of Trade
Much of the speculation about this week's meeting has been on the possible launch of a Board of Trade, together with reciprocal tariff reductions on US$30 billion (NZ$52.3 billion) of goods in each direction. Both steps were agreed to in May.
A Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said earlier this month that the two sides hope to implement the tariff reductions “at an early date”. Analysts expect an announcement, though some think it will fall short of US$30 billion (NZ$52.3 billion).
About 10 product categories are under discussion, but there are disagreements over the scope of the initiative, experts at the World Economic Forum wrote last week. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said after talks with China on Sunday that the list could include consumer and agricultural goods, energy products and medical devices. Analysts said it could boost US exports and lower prices on some goods for American consumers.
“I think for the president, he wants to be able to demonstrate, just before the midterms, that this approach is working and that it benefits voters,” Schuman said, referring to US congressional elections in November.
Chinese farm purchases may fall short
The White House said in May that China had agreed to buy at least US$17 billion (NZ$29.6 billion) annually in American agricultural products, on top of an earlier pledge to buy 25 million metric tonnes of soybeans a year.
That would bring China's total yearly farm purchases from the US to about US$30 billion (NZ$52.3 billion), according to Luke Lindberg, the US undersecretary of agriculture for trade.
It's unclear if that level will be reached. The US Department of Agriculture forecast last month that China would import US$21.5 billion (NZ$37.4 billion) of American farm goods in the 12-month period starting October 1.
The two sides also agreed in May to work actively to reduce barriers to dairy, seafood and potted bonsai exports from China, and beef and poultry from the US.
China has renewed registrations for American beef plants, but negotiators are working on technical issues to clear US shipments at Chinese ports, said Joe Schuele of the US Meat Export Federation.
“Hopefully it will get worked out soon,” he said.
Boeing is still waiting for orders
China, a major commercial aviation market, promised to buy 200 Boeing planes in May. Four months later, those sales have yet to materialise.
Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said last week that Chinese airlines would announce the orders on their schedule.
“We're progressing nicely,” he told analysts. “And I'm confident that we will be receiving orders.”
The Chinese have been concerned about access to aircraft parts, said Craig Allen, a nonresident fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
AI is finally getting attention
Little came of an agreement to set up a dialogue on AI until a recent flurry of activity spurred by industry fears about it being misused.
“AI is now on people’s minds,” said Alvin Graylin, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
But while the world's two leading AI nations share concerns over risks, they also see each other as competitors, hindering cooperation.
“They see little reason to collaborate in areas where they believe a competitive advantage is key, regardless of what they say about wanting to get along,” said Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore.
A smaller step would be setting up a channel for crisis communications. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said after Sunday's talks that the US has proposed a notification mechanism for artificial intelligence incidents that could affect national security,
“Given how low the trust is between these two countries, it’s really important that people know who their counterparts are and can call them when there’s a crisis,” said Schuman, the former trade negotiator.
Little hope for a Board of Investment
An agreement to form a Board of Investment, also announced in May, has proved to be a more difficult proposition than the one on trade.
Though Trump welcomes new factories in the United States, Chinese investment is drawing scrutiny from the US Congress over security and strategic concerns in an era of US-China competition.
China is likewise cautious about exporting its technology to the US and unsure whether it is safe to invest in the country, said Kurt Tong, a former US diplomat now with The Asia Group consultancy.
“It kind of sets up a parameter on how far the relationship might be able to improve, given the levels of suspicion between the US and China,” he said.
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