Parched paddocks in the north and swollen rivers in the south are expected this summer, with New Zealanders urged to prepare for a record-breaking El Nino forecast to bring a season of extremes.
Earth Sciences NZ says it is already comparable to the 1997 event, which brought widespread drought across the country, and is showing the strongest warming trend on record.
In an El Niño, the easterly winds circling the Equator weaken and warm water pools in the eastern Pacific, rewiring the weather as far away as New Zealand. Here, past El Niños point to a split climate pattern: a dry, hot summer for the north and east, from Northland down to Hawke’s Bay and across to Marlborough and Canterbury, and a wetter season for the west and south of the South Island.
El Niño is a natural cycle that returns every few years, but this one is playing out on a planet already warmed by climate change.
For New Zealanders, the difference could be rationing water or sandbagging the garage. Here’s what you can do to prepare, wherever you are.
Dry north and east
The dry will bite first from Northland through Auckland, Waikato and the Bay of Plenty, and down the east coast through Tairāwhiti to Hawke’s Bay. Expect fewer showers, more dry spells, spells of high temperatures, and soils and vegetation drying out into summer.
If you farm, the message from the Ministry for Primary Industries is simple: "Feed is key." Conserve surplus, build a feed budget, and be ready to destock lower-priority animals early. Set dates for key decisions now – based on money, soil moisture and feed – so you’re not making them in a panic. If you’re on a lifestyle block with a tank, book your refill before it’s empty.
Wildfires are also a major concern for emergency services, with Fire and Emergency NZ saying simple steps can reduce the risk in and around people's properties.
"Clear dead and dry vegetation from around buildings, make sure emergency vehicles can easily access your property, ensure water supplies are available if firefighters need them, and keep spring grass growth under control," said deputy chief executive of prevention Stephen Hunt.
The ocean has flipped from La Niña to a fast-intensifying El Niño in a matter of months, with more profound impacts expected for New Zealand. (Source: Supplied)
"These actions can make a real difference if fire threatens your home or community."
FENZ says around 98% of wildfires are caused by people and their activities, meaning New Zealanders have a big role to play in preventing them.
"We urge people to use fire safely and to always check the conditions and fire season status in their area before lighting an outdoor fire," said deputy national commander Megan Stiffler.
The risk is highest where dry conditions meet stronger winds. Fire and Emergency has warned people in Central Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough, Wairarapa, Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti to prepare for increased wildfire risk.
Water supply is the other pressure point. Taumata Arowai head of operations Steve Taylor said extended dry conditions could strain rivers, streams, reservoirs and aquifers while increasing demand for water. North and eastern areas are considered most at risk of shortages, with rural and smaller communities who rely on rainwater tanks, shallow groundwater or small community schemes particularly vulnerable.
Early planning will make a "real difference when dry conditions put pressure on supplies", Taylor said, with water providers urged to engage with their communities as soon as possible.
"People should follow any restrictions or advisories put in place by their drinking water supplier or local council.
"For households, the best things people can do now are practical: follow local water-saving advice, report leaks to their council, get leaks on their own property fixed, and store emergency drinking water."
Wet west and south
The opposite problem is brewing on the other side of the Southern Alps. Rain is likely to run above normal in the west and south of the South Island, especially the West Coast, Fiordland and Southland.
MPI is urging farmers in wetter areas to plan ahead, warning prolonged wet weather can "reduce pasture growth and utilisation, impact production, or leave your farm or orchard isolated".
Its advice includes clearing drains and culverts, servicing tractors and machinery for slippery tracks, and having a plan to shift stock off low-lying or flood-prone paddocks before heavy rain.
Environment Southland principal hydrology scientist Chris Jenkins said wet and windy periods were likely for the region through spring and summer.
"Although average river levels are expected to remain near normal over the three-month outlook, periods of heavy rainfall could still increase the risk of flooding."
Across the country
Heat is a risk well beyond the dry zones, with eastern parts of both islands likely to experience spikes in high temperatures. Health NZ has warned that babies, older people, disabled people and those with serious long-term health conditions face the greatest risk from both heat and wildfire smoke, which can travel long distances and worsen existing conditions.
People are urged to watch for heat rash, heat cramps, sunburn, heat exhaustion and heatstroke, and to seek immediate medical attention if they see signs of heatstroke or sunstroke.
Households are advised to stay inside or in the shade during hot weather, limit physical activity and keep up fluid intake, and to head somewhere air conditioned, such as a library or shopping mall, if they can’t keep their home cool.
Forecasters say the event could peak this month and then ease quickly or keep building into December or January before declining more slowly. Either way, they say, the next few weeks will show which way it’s heading.
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