Rural communities are bracing for what is set to be one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with one Wairarapa farmer warning the country should be "alarmed".
The current El Niño is expected to bring a warm, dry and windy spring to many parts of the country – putting pressure on crops, pasture, and water supplies.
Earth Sciences NZ's seasonal climate outlook, released on Wednesday, said El Niño had "strengthened considerably since mid-winter" and was on track to reach the very strong category early in September, with a peak most likely in late spring or early summer.
Federated Farmers Wairarapa president Robert Hickson told Breakfast that the country should be "alarmed".
"It's very hard to know how alarmed, but I think definitely alarmed, definitely concerned," he said.
He said the "wicked trinity" of warmth, wind, and dryness would have a big impact on the sector.
"The dryness means there's a lack of soil moisture, the warmth means that it evaporates more quickly, and the wind exacerbates that evaporation.
"So any rain that we do get when it's windy and hot can be removed from the soil very, very quickly, and then that prevents us from growing grass or crops or whatever our farming enterprise."
There were a few options farmers had, but none were "particularly attractive".
The first was to reduce the number of livestock on farms to reduce demand for "limited" grass resources.
Another was to sell – which came with a host of caveats.
"Obviously you're selling on a buyer's market, so there's a lot of other people selling as well, and a limited number of people that have the ability to purchase stock. So prices are down," Hickson said.
Farmers could purchase animal feed, which is an "expensive process".
"The reason why we're successful at farming in New Zealand is that you can grow grass cheaply, but once you have to put grass, transport it, feed it out, it becomes quite an expensive way to feed animals."
Sending animals to graze at other farms was another option, as El Niño affected regions differently.
"It tends to affect the East Coast more than the West Coast. So traditionally, we've been able to take advantage of the West Coast being wetter in summer, and either buy feed from there or send animals over there."
Planting drought-tolerant forage crops before summer set in was a possible, but "risky" measure, Hickson said.
"Depending on how dry that spring is, there's a risk that that crop will fail, and that will be an investment that comes to very little."
Federated Farmers called for greater investment in water storage.
"We really need to have a serious attempt to build these water reservoirs on farm and big reservoirs that serve cities and farmers together," Hickson said.
Following a Wairarapa meeting in May, Associate Minister of Agriculture Mike Butterick told The Post the Government had consulted on proposals to improve water security and better enable water storage.
He said the Government had improved legislation to do this through bills like the Fast-track Approvals Act 2024 and the Building (Dam Safety) Amendment Regulations 2024.
“The Ministry for Primary Industries has funding available via the Primary Sector Growth Fund to help communities explore potential storage solutions, and there is also the Regional Infrastructure Fund, administered by MPI’s Kanoa, available to help," he said.
“I’m very keen as Associate Minister of Agriculture, and having water storage and resilience as one of my delegations, to explore cross-party support for storage, and build on the water component in this Government’s infrastructure report."
The Ministry of Primary Industries' Andrew Curtis said it was working with sector groups to prepare farmers and growers.
"It's important farmers make decisions early, including identifying feed deficits and assessing the potential for summer feed crops. It could also mean prioritising livestock for destocking early and feeding the remainder as well as possible,” he said.
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