Firefighters are stockpiling retardant and farmers are being told to make early calls on stock numbers, as preparations ramp up for tougher conditions ahead.
New Zealand set for its first taste of El Niño’s drier, windier pattern this weekend and forecasters warn the climate phenomenon brewing in the Pacific could end up stronger than any on record.
Health officials are also preparing for the twin threats of heat and smoke.
Around 200 organisations were briefed at a national readiness forum last week, where they were told the climate event could persist through 2026 and into 2027.
Earth Sciences NZ's Chris Brandolino said it was intensifying unusually quickly and had a high probability of becoming a record-breaker.
"This El Niño event will go down as the strongest El Niño event in reported history over the past maybe 100 years or thereabouts," he told 1News.
Meteorologists say, given the strength of the climate event, the country will be impacted this winter. (Source: 1News)
The first signs could arrive this weekend.
"As we go through the weekend and next week, we'll start to see these more quintessential El Niño-like weather patterns."
A couple of fronts, embedded in a strong and moist northwest flow, are forecast to move across the country, bringing heavy rain to the West Coast and severe gales to large parts of the South Island and lower North Island.
A taste of what’s ahead
Rainfall modelling to the end of September points to a dry North Island, along with the top and east of the South Island, Brandolino said, though the risk will not be uniform.
Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty are likely to experience below average rainfall - with Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa, Marlborough, the top of the South Island and Canterbury also facing elevated risk.
The western and lower South Island faces the opposite problem, with wetter than usual conditions likely to build into what could become excess rainfall by October and November.
Modelling is also flagging wind events dragging warm air off Australia, producing short, sharp bursts of unusually high temperatures for the time of year.
"These spiky temperatures will be fuelled by these wind events, but when you combine the wind, the temperatures, the lack of rainfall, this could lead to enhanced fire risk and perhaps a busier than usual wildfire season," Brandolino said.
Firefighters gear up early
A Fire and Emergency NZ spokesperson said the agency had begun preparations early, including reviewing operational readiness, monitoring emerging risk areas, and working with local authorities, iwi, land managers and industry partners.
Crews have been checking equipment and have increased foam and retardant stocks by 20,000 litres, to carry 120,000 litres, to brace for the possibility of more fires.
Firefighters, aviation, drones and specialist crews can also be moved or pre-positioned between regions if conditions call for it, backed by support from the Department of Conservation, forestry partners and the Defence Force.
New Zealand also currently has firefighters deployed to the United States and Canada, experience the spokesperson said was valuable for tackling large, complex fires at home.
With about 98% of wildfires in New Zealand caused by people, the spokesperson urged property owners to clear dead vegetation, keep accessways clear for emergency vehicles, and ensure water supplies like tanks are accessible.
"The most effective time to prepare is before conditions become severe and before there is smoke in the air," they said.
'Make decisions early': Farmers urged to act now
The Ministry of Primary Industries' Andrew Curtis said it is working with sector groups to get farmers and growers ready.
"It's important farmers make decisions early, including identifying feed deficits and assessing the potential for summer feed crops. It could also mean prioritising livestock for destocking early and feeding the remainder as well as possible,” he said.
Curtis said the pattern could also bring increased rainfall to Southland, parts of Otago and western facing areas, primarily in the South Island.
He stressed help was available, including through levy organisations such as DairyNZ and Beef + Lamb New Zealand, with MPI staff working alongside the Rural Support Trust.
"If you're new to farming, growing, or a district, it can be helpful to talk to experts who've been through an El Niño in your area before," he said.
Lifestyle block owners, particularly those new to rural life, should also be making a dry-weather plan for their animals, Curtis said, with prolonged hot, dry spells raising the risk of drought, heat stress in animals and wildfire.
Dry weather puts water on watch
Extended dry conditions could put pressure on rivers, streams, reservoirs and aquifers while increasing demand for water, Taumata Arowai head of operations Steve Taylor said.
North and eastern areas are considered most at risk of shortages, with rural and smaller communities reliant on rainwater tanks, shallow groundwater or small community schemes particularly vulnerable.
Early planning will make a “real difference when dry conditions put pressure on supplies”, with Taylor saying suppliers should engage with the community “as early as possible”.
“People should follow any restrictions or advisories put in place by their drinking water supplier or local council.
“For households, the best things people can do now are practical: follow local water saving advice, report leaks to their council, get leaks on their own property fixed, and store emergency drinking water.”
Health NZ has warned babies, older people, disabled people and those with serious long-term health conditions face the greatest risk from both heat and wildfire smoke, which can travel long distances and worsen existing conditions.
People are urged to watch for heat rash, heat cramps, sunburn, heat exhaustion and heatstroke, and to seek immediate medical attention if they see signs of heatstroke or sunstroke.
Households are advised to stay inside or in the shade during hot weather, limit physical activity and keep up fluids - and to head somewhere air conditioned, such as a library or shopping mall, if they cannot keep their home cool.
The ocean has flipped from La Niña to a fast-intensifying El Niño in a matter of months, with more profound impacts expected for New Zealand. (Source: Supplied)
The big unknown: How this El Niño will behave
Brandolino said comparisons with previous strong El Niño years needed to be treated carefully.
"We know the average outcome of El Niño, but no El Niño is average. Every El Niño has its own sort of DNA, has its own sort of fingerprints," he said.
Previous "super" El Niño events in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 are being used to anticipate what might unfold, but Brandolino said the small sample size is only part of the problem. The bigger issue is that the Earth itself has changed, with the events of the early 1970s and early 1980s occurring when the planet was significantly cooler.
"The Earth has only gotten warmer. That is a bit of a wrinkle that we're a bit unsure how that may influence this El Niño event."
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