A rapidly strengthening El Niño is set to become one of the strongest on record, bringing higher temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns across the globe, the World Meteorological Organisation says.
The weather agency has warned sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could reach record levels in the final three months of 2026, with El Niño conditions expected to peak in December.
Southwest Pacific could experience severe tropical cyclones reaching category 3 or higher this season. (Source: 1News)
In its latest climate update, the World Meteorological Organisation said there was a near 100% likelihood the climate event would persist through to February 2027.
"El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly," World Meteorological Organisation secretary general Celeste Saulo said, adding that the event would be "one of the strongest since at least 1950".
Sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern tropical Pacific had already risen sharply, from 1.6C above normal in June to 2.5C in August.
The agency predicted the temperature anomaly could reach around 3.7C between October and December – surpassing the previous record of 2.6C during the 2015-16 El Niño event.
El Niño was a naturally occurring climate pattern involving unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific, which could influence temperatures and weather patterns worldwide.
El Niño is expected to bring a warm, dry and windy spring – putting pressure on crops, pasture, and water supplies. (Source: Breakfast)
Impacts already felt in NZ
The warning comes after New Zealand experienced its third-warmest winter on record, with an average temperature of 9.7C — 1.1C above normal.
According to Earth Sciences New Zealand, temperatures were above average across much of of the country during winter, particularly in the South Island.
Christchurch recorded a high of 26C on June 20, the country's second-highest winter temperature on record, while Auckland experienced an unusually dry and sunny winter, receiving just 68% of normal rainfall.
Intensifying El Niño conditions had already delivered warm, dry and windy spring weather to many parts of the country.
Earth Sciences NZ meteorologist Chester Lampkin told Breakfast "this is the time to prepare" and have a plan for where to get water from. (Source: Breakfast)
In an earlier spring outlook, 1News meteorologist Dan Corbett said El Niño would likely bring more frequent westerly winds to New Zealand, with passing fronts delivering most of their rain to western areas and leaving eastern regions drier.
"The ground and soil moisture is at a good point right now, but several weeks of warm dry winds can quickly change that," he said.
Corbett warned temperatures could climb well into the 20s in the spring months, with drought potentially becoming an issue in some areas heading into summer.
However, he cautioned that slow-moving weather systems could still bring sudden heavy rainfall and extreme weather events.
The ocean has flipped from La Niña to a fast-intensifying El Niño in a matter of months, with more profound impacts expected for New Zealand. (Source: Supplied)
'More heat available to release'
The World Meteorological Organisation said the growing El Niño would cause temperatures around the globe to soar, following what it described as the hottest August on record.
"El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface — which is why a strong event so often becomes one of the hottest years measured," Saulo said.
"The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release."
The event was also predicted to shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought in some regions and flooding in others.
Wetter-than-normal conditions were forecast across parts of Africa, Asia and the Americas, while drier conditions were expected across much of the western Pacific and parts of Central and South America.
The agency cautioned its seasonal outlook reflected broad climate trends rather than specific local forecasts.
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