Drier conditions are predicted for Gisborne this summer, with farmers and vintners welcoming the prospect of warmer weather.
By Imogen Brophy for Local Democracy Reporting
Earth Sciences New Zealand’s weather and seasonal forecasting chief scientist Chris Brandolino said the El Niño weather pattern was expected to bring stronger westerly winds and below-average rainfall.
“Our outlook calls for below-normal rainfall as the most likely outcome for the next three months until the end of the calendar year for the eastern part of the North Island, and that does include Tairāwhiti Gisborne,” he said.
“So we’ll have to watch for dryness emerging as we move through the coming weeks and months.”
Temperatures were expected to fluctuate, with warmer periods followed by abrupt cooling. Dry, windy conditions could also increase wildfire risk.
Brandolino urged people to monitor Fire and Emergency New Zealand advice as conditions developed.
“One exception is the extreme coastal areas of Gisborne, oddly enough. But for the most part, when you go north into the Raukūmaras and over toward the Bay of Plenty region, rainfall has been pretty inadequate and soils are starting to dry.”
El Niño is expected to bring a warm, dry and windy spring – putting pressure on crops, pasture, and water supplies. (Source: Breakfast)
He encouraged farmers and people reliant on tank water to plan ahead.
Federated Farmers Gisborne-Wairoa president Charlie Reynolds said inland areas including Mātāwai and Motu were dry and Rere and Ngātapa were beginning to dry out.
However, he said farmers were welcoming warmer weather as it reduced the risk of flystrike.
Reynolds hoped for hot, dry conditions with 20mm of rain weekly, but expected some coastal areas to retain moisture.
“I think because we’ve got so many trees, the coastal area and where we are [in Ormond] and Wharekōpae, those areas will still pull in rain. It might not be as much as it has been in the past, but I still think we will get pockets which will have rainfall on them.”
Reynolds said farmers were preparing for potential water shortages by planning stock sales and booking tanker deliveries in advance if storage was limited or they were reliant on rainfall.
At his Ormond farm, Reynolds plans to sell his sheep and 90% of his cattle, keeping only horses, and have 200,000 litres of water storage prepared.
He said he expected increased stock sales to affect local sheep and beef prices although global demand remained strong.
He also urged rural communities to take fire risks seriously, warning fires could be difficult to control with limited firefighting resources outside forestry fire units.
“If FENZ says no fires, then just don’t light a fire.”
Wrights Vineyard and Winery owner Geoff Wright said he noticed spring had been dry until the rain last weekend, which helped replenish soil moisture.
“We were planting a couple hundred plants and I was quite surprised when I dug down [at] how dry it was.”
Wrights is optimistic a hot and dry summer will produce flavourful grapes and a strong vintage.
“I think 1998 was another really dry season for vineyards on the east side of North Island and they made some really lovely wines from that year. So if they’re saying it’s going to be dry and hopefully not too many cyclones, then we’re expecting a really good vintage.”
Wright said to prepare for the changing weather, they had pulled up some end-of-life chardonnay and syrah vines, which they had replaced with 3000 new vines better suited to the region’s changing climate.
1News meteorologist Dan Corbett explains what to expect as we enter spring. (Source: 1News)
“We’ve had a review of our production and what’s worked and hasn’t worked. We’re choosing some varieties which traditionally work really well with warmer climates and extended summer periods. For example, a Bordeaux red blend.”
However, he had been filling wine tanks with water since winter to ensure the health of new vines as they were not connected to the town supply.
Compost from organic winery waste would also be used to retain soil moisture, he said.
He hoped warmer weather would attract more tourists to Gisborne although extreme heat could keep visitors away from the cellar door during the day.
“Last year we did have chats about changing our cellar door hours to more of an evening event, rather than during the day for that reason.”
Bookings and enquiries had already started, including from cruise ship passengers planning visits months ahead.
The morning's headlines in 90 seconds, including a cyclone hits the Cook Islands, and the FlyDubai pilot speaks about being attacked. (Source: Breakfast)
After recent cyclones and roading disruptions discouraged visitors, he hoped good weather, surf and publicity would help draw tourists back.
Earth Sciences New Zealand said the risk of tropical cyclones affecting New Zealand was normal for the November-to-April season.
Seven to 11 named cyclones were forecast across the Southwest Pacific, including four expected to reach Category 3 or higher.
Brandolino noted that cyclones such as Gabrielle and Vaianu occurred during La Niña years, the opposite climate pattern to El Niño.
– Local Democracy Reporting is local body journalism co-funded by RNZ and NZ On Air
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