Analysis: Scotty Stevenson delves into the minds of the selectors ahead of the opening match of the Rugby World Cup.
If All Blacks fans need a straw to clutch ahead of the side’s clash with hosts France on Saturday morning, they can always wrap their trembling fingers around the concept of Test experience. Ian Foster and his selection team have named a starting lineup that boasts 984 test caps – almost twice as many as the French.
While France’s head coach Fabien Galthie has said this is the best team he could select (injuries have forced the withdrawal of at least four first-choice starters), their collective Test cap count is just 498. The difference between the two sides in terms of gathered World Cup wisdom could not be starker.
Experience may not count for everything at Test level - enthusiasm, energy and accuracy are all qualities this French team will bring to the contest – but a full memory bank of scenario planning is an asset the best teams share. This All Blacks side has seen it all and can draw on that knowledge if and when it finds itself under the pump.
There will naturally be discussion around the match-up between Aaron Smith and Antoine Dupont. Smith was for so long the reigning monarch of scrum halves, but Dupont now undoubtedly rules the roost. Dupont may be considered the best player in the world, but as our old mate William (Shakespeare, that is, not Webb Ellis) wrote, “uneasy is the head that wears a crown". Captaining a side is one thing. Doing it at a World Cup is quite another.
This is an opportunity for Smith to use his experiential advantage over his young rival (he will run out for the All Blacks for the 120th time on Saturday morning) and to produce a game of crystal clarity. The more he can challenge Dupont’s thinking, the better the All Blacks’ chances. If there is one player in this New Zealand side who can dictate the tempo of a test match, it is him.
Crucially, that experience advantage also applies at first five and in the front row. Richie Mo’unga and Nepo Laulala will each win their 50th Test cap this weekend, while their respective opposites, Matthieu Jalibert and Reda Wardi, are playing in their first World Cup match. Jalibert has been an able deputy to the injured Romain Ntamack but does not possess his flair, while Wardi will be suiting up for just his 10th Test. Both matchups may prove pivotal, and the two men in black simply must win them.
It will have surprised no-one that the selectors opted for Anton Lienert-Brown over David Havili in replacing the injured Jordie Barrett. While Lienert-Brown has started at 12 in just nine of his 63 Test appearances, it is the last number that matters. Havili has just 25 Tests under his belt. Again, the experience wins. Lienert-Brown’s opposite, Yoram Moefana, has played just 18 Tests and is more regarded as a wing than a midfielder. This is the kind of match-up that should have Lienert-Brown licking his lips; the added pressure on French veteran centre Gael Fickou to emulsify his combination with Moefana will provide Reiko Ioane with plenty of opportunity to attack.
There will be some debate around the selection at blindside of specialist openside Dalton Papali’i, ahead of the seemingly more ready-made Luke Jacobson, but here too, there is clarity of thought. Papali’i has leadership experience with the Blues and has proved adept at adjusting his game to play the required role. Ian Foster will know his back row is dwarfed by that of the French (their openside Charles Ollivon stands almost two metres), but this trio is capable of being destructive in a different way. If Papali’i, Savea and Cane can gel quickly, the ‘three sevens’ gamble may well pay off.
There is an interesting counterpoint to the hype surrounding the opening match, which is the result will have no bearing on the play-off chances of either side. With as much respect as can be mustered for Italy, Uruguay and Namibia, France and New Zealand will have no problems emerging from Pool A. However, there will be confidence to be taken from a first-up performance. For France, an opportunity to ignite the passion of the nation. For New Zealand, a chance to avoid another unwanted slice of history: a first-ever pool stage loss at a World Cup.
Interestingly, pool stage defeats are one area in which the French don’t lack for experience.
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