US President Donald Trump said that newly planned talks with Tehran are the “last chance” for Iran to forge a deal and avoid an escalation of US strikes on the country.
Trump, speaking at the Oval Office, said he expects negotiations that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and create a pathway for Iran to address United States’ concerns about it’s nuclear programme will begin in the next day or two.
The Republican president says, “The first phase is the opening of the straits. The second phase will be the denuclearisation.” Trump says that ”will take a little while.”
While Trump has revelled in the US military decimating layers of Tehran’s leadership and devastating its air force and navy, Iran is betting it can outlast Trump as he faces diminished stockpiles of munitions and the difficulty of executing a war that is unpopular with the American electorate ahead of November’s midterm election.
Trump said he decided to hold off on ordering American forces to carry out new massive strikes against Iran at the urging of Gulf allies Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
He said that a plan was in place for US forces to carry out “the biggest attack since World War II” on Sunday. But he decided to scrap the plan and give diplomacy more time to play out after hearing from key Gulf leaders — including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — as well as at the request of unnamed Iranian officials.
Earlier Monday, Trump had raised doubts about the prospects of negotiations after the Iranian Foreign Ministry said Tehran announced it is not currently holding negotiations with the United States.
“Iranian Leadership is unbelievably duplicitous!” Trump fumed on his Truth Social platform.
Critics see Trump reaching for a reset button in this pattern
Trump may still come to the conclusion that a massive escalation in the conflict with Iran is necessary.
But critics say his hesitation also might reflect an unspoken understanding inside the administration that US military might alone may not be enough to compel Iran to back down and bring an end to a now monthslong war that Trump had earlier downplayed as a weekslong excursion.
“I think what we’re seeing here is a president who has an approach that’s just rather erratic,” said Senator Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, on CBS News' Face the Nation.
“At this point, he's trying to get us back to February. And I think if he could — if he had a big reset button he could hit — he would certainly take that option.”
There have been several moments over the course of the conflict when Trump has demonstrated his proclivity for the bellicose only to back off at the last minute, while declaring his threats spurred progress:
— In early April, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in an announcement that came less than two hours before a deadline Trump had set for Tehran to capitulate or face attacks on bridges and power plants — strikes he said would mean “a whole civilisation will die".
— After days of dire threats against Iran, Trump announced on May 18 he was holding off on a major planned military strike because “serious negotiations” were underway, crediting Gulf allies for persuading him to show restraint.
— Then in June, Trump threatened to hit Iran “VERY HARD” and seize Iran’s energy base on Kharg Island to "assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets,” he wrote on social media, only to call off the strikes in a later post after claiming that peace negotiations had progressed with high-level Iranian leaders.
Left unsaid by the president was that such an endeavour would require US troops on the ground in Iran — a risky proposition politically for a president who campaigned on avoiding foreign entanglements and criticised past administrations for getting bogged down in endless wars.
Call with Saudi crown prince affected Trump's decision
With this latest episode, Trump suggested that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman played a particularly important role in him turning away from escalating the fight.
The US president spoke by phone with the de facto leader of the kingdom on Saturday before announcing he was halting strikes that he later boasted would have been one of the biggest US operations since World War II.
The crown prince conveyed that an escalation in fighting could have a severe impact on the global economy if Tehran responded to a new US bombardment by targeting some of the United States’ Gulf allies, according to a person briefed on the call who was not authorized to comment publicly and requested anonymity.
Saudi officials, the person added, have underscored in their engagements with the Trump administration that the kingdom is in a good position to defend itself against further potential Iranian strikes — as are fellow energy titans Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — but that Kuwait could be more vulnerable to attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.
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