The government may opt to keep its cost of living payment for a little longer, despite one of the triggers to end the payments likely to be met.
By Giles Dexter of RNZ
The deputy prime minister, who argued for the four-week test in the first place, is supportive of keeping the payments for now, in case recent lower prices have turned out to be a blip rather than a return to normal.
But David Seymour says if it is a return to normal, then it is time for the payments to end.
Since April, 143,000 families have been able to receive support through a $50 boost to the in-work tax credit (IWTC).
The support has been designed to cease after 12 months, or until the price of 91 petrol drops below $3 a litre for four consecutive weeks, whichever comes first.
Prices dipped below $3 in late June, and on Tuesday morning fuel monitoring website Gaspy reported the average price of 91 had returned to $3 exactly.
The finance minister has hinted that, given the "s-shape in which prices have gone up and down", the relief will stay.
On Monday, Nicola Willis said she had received three weeks of official data, and would get data for the fourth week on Wednesday.
"We anticipate that will show fuel prices below $3 for the week previous, which will trigger me to take advice to Cabinet on what we do with the scheme going forward," she said.
"However, officials have advised me that, given the significant increase in international fuel prices in the past few weeks, they are anticipating that the fuel price in future weeks will have spiked up above $3 again."
ACT leader David Seymour supported holding onto the payment in case the lower prices turned out to be a "blip" instead of a return to normal.
"The policy says we have to make a decision if it goes four weeks under $3, and that leaves some leeway for a scenario where this ends up being the only four weeks for the rest of the year where the price is under $3. I don't think we should get rid of it in that case," he said.
"But let's see. Give it another week, and if it starts to look like we're going to be under $3 for a long time, then it's time to save money for the taxpayer and end this policy that was there for dealing with high fuel prices."
Documents released by the Treasury earlier this month showed initially, the government was only considering the 12-month package.
The one-year increase to the IWTC was estimated to cost $373 million. It would cost less if the four consecutive weeks of fuel under $3 happened before then.
Seymour said it was ACT that got the four-week rule over the line.
"In a few weeks we will know, was this four weeks a blip or was it a return to more normal prices? If it was a blip, we'll be glad that we didn't abandon the policy prematurely. If this is hopefully a return to more normal prices, then the only thing to do is to cease this payment and save the taxpayer hundreds of millions of dollars."
Labour MP Kieran McAnulty said people needed help, and Labour supported the relief staying in place.
"We're criticising them for not doing enough, but we're not going to ask them to take away the sole standing thing that they have done."
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