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I'm smack-bang in the political centre, and I know how I'll vote in November

Composite image: Di McCauley

In the latest in our State of the Nation series, we talk to a 49-year-old family man and social worker from Christchurch about what he earns, how he feels about Aotearoa in 2026, and which way he plans to vote.

How much do you earn? I’m on $75,000 a year. Our household income is $170,000.

How many people live in your house? Two adults and three children (aged 16, 14 and 12).

Do you have a mortgage? Yes, and we’ve just increased it to do some renovations.

Do you feel secure in your employment? Yes.

Do you feel that your job could be threatened by AI? No. I mean, with social work, yes you can sit in front of a screen and type in your feelings, but social work needs that human connection.

Have you lived overseas? Yes, for four years, but I came back from London because, back then, I thought that New Zealand had more to offer in terms of lifestyle.

How do you feel about living in New Zealand now? Well, geez, there's a lot of factors that come into that. I'd love to live somewhere warmer; the Christchurch summers have been bullshit for the last couple of years, so I would be quite happy to move to the east coast of Australia.

Flooding in Christchurch in February this year.

But in saying that, I don't like the intensive population over in Australia; I do like a slightly quieter lifestyle. Also, the money is much better in Australia but my family's here, my kids are here, so no plans to leave, no.

How do you intend to vote in the general election in November? National.

Why is that? With the US-Iran conflict and how petrol prices went skyrocketing, I think National have actually done quite a good job keeping the lid on inflation. I remember a few years ago, after Labour borrowed all the money for Covid, our inflation shot up, and that hurt me. And I think National have done a good job, keeping the lid on the economy without it sort of exploding. Yeah, I think they deserve another shot.

What do you think of Christopher Luxon as Prime Minister? I actually quite like him. I think he's quite level-headed. I think he takes in all the information, and then makes a decision.

Party leader and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon speaks during the National Party 90th Annual Conference at Lower Hutt Event Centre

Are you a long-term National voter? On the political spectrum, I would be the bullseye – right smack-bang in the middle. However, as the Overton window swings to the left and I stay in the centre, technically I am now on the right side.

What's your view of Labour leader Chris Hipkins? I feel like he's a bit of a car salesman. Not to say this about car salesmen – but I don’t believe he’s genuine. There’s just something there that doesn’t gel with me. I think he’s all talk.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins

What do you think is the most urgent issue facing Kiwis at this year's election? It would have to be the economy, because New Zealand can't function if our economy is completely broken.

What’s your view on the planned development of AI data centres in New Zealand? I think that would be an opportunity. The work has got to go into building them which will be good for the economy. If they can run them off sustainable energy, like hydro or solar, yeah, fantastic. There's a problem if they start burning coal.

Has the recent fuel crisis impacted you? A little, not much. I try and avoid taking my car. It runs on diesel, and when the fuel prices went up, diesel was horrendously expensive, plus the road-user taxes just made it unsustainable. So I have an E-scooter and ride that to work.

Do you agree with National's proposal to raise the superannuation elegibility age to 67? Yes, that's fine, we're all living longer, so yeah, makes sense.

Do you plan to work past 65? The date in my head is age 70.

What do you think of the Green Party's wealth tax proposal? I think that's just a money grab, to be quite honest. It doesn't affect me, but I think they’re just jumping on the bandwagon of some of the commentators overseas – what’s his name, Bernie Sanders and all his, “the super rich, blah, blah, blah...”

Speaking to Breakfast's Tova O'Brien, Swarbrick answered questions about the specifics of the "seven major changes that are in our policy package".

You don't think that the super-rich could spare some of their money and share it around? I don't think that the typical New Zealander would see much of that money. I think it's just posturing by the Greens to say, “well, we're going to tax the uber wealthy” and everyone goes “yay” but I can’t actually see it having much of an effect at all.

Do you believe that we should be teaching all of our children te reo Māori at school? Yes.

What's your level of te reo? I’d give myself a four out of 10. I can piece together enough words to understand a conversation. I can do my pepeha and I'm quite happy to do a karakia but I'm not fluent. I couldn't go to a marae and do a speech.

How do you feel about this Government’s controversial reviewing and amending of the Treaty of Waitangi? Dangerous, I think. A powder keg that could go off. I personally do think that the Treaty is obsolete. Could you scrap the whole thing and bring everyone to the table and come up with a new one? I don't know, but it just seems that this Treaty that was written [in 1840] is just a cause of immense problems in our society, yet we still keep it. I'd be quite happy to take the leaders of all parties and academics and leaders of the community, lock them in a room for a month, throw away the key, and tell them to sort it out.

But one political party tinkering with a treaty? Yeah, that's quite dangerous.

The 2024 nationwide march opposing the government's Treaty Principles Bill and its policies impacting Māori.

Do you have Māori ancestry? Technically, I would be New Zealand European, however, I’m fifth generation New Zealander, and one of my arguments is, when am I classed as tangata whenua? When am I a person of this land? Every cell, every atom of my body is New Zealand made.

Do you think we need to allow more immigrants into New Zealand? Or fewer? I'm a little bit 50/50 on that, because the traffic on our roads is getting worse and worse as our cities expand, and I don't know if that's because of immigration. My daughter needed to go to the GP the other day [urgently] and it took us 48 hours to get her in to see one, and it never used to be that way, but I don’t know if it's immigration that's leading to the increased demand on our services.

I mean, I'm completely open to people from other parts of the world coming to us. Of course, they need to assimilate into our culture. I regularly see what's happening in Europe, with the migrants over there, and I think that people coming here need to at least make an effort to assimilate into our culture.

Anything you'd like to add about Aotearoa? I was a teacher for 25 years, and I resigned because my wellbeing was being slowly sandpapered down to nothing. I wasn't enjoying it, but I still have a lot of contacts [in education], and I need to give props to National for their cellphone ban.

When I was a teacher I saw the social media literally rotting our rangatahi; it was destroying them. The cellphone ban is a massive step in the right direction.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity. The views expressed are not those of TVNZ.

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