There will be 40 to 50 fewer frosts a year in the Mackenzie Country and inland Otago if global emissions remain high, the Climate Change Commission says.
It's not all good news. While temperatures below 0C kept many people indoors, some relied on them.
Awakino Ski Area members were among those living with the change.
Club secretary David Campbell told 1News the snow line had "crept up a few hundred metres" in the last 15 years or so.
"It's not lasting like it used to. It doesn't even hold round in winter now," he said.
In Cromwell, curling had been disrupted too.
Curler Simon Webb said previously, teams could play on the outdoor pond and rink around 20 to 30 days a year.
"We've had half a day on it in the last eight years."
Webb, an orchardist, said while his stone fruit crops were damaged by frosts in spring, winter temperatures needed to drop to around 0C for their hormonal cycle.
"You need 800-odd hours of winter chilling... which then produces a viable flower and if you don't get that, the hormones in the plant are deactivated and the flower could be non-viable or may not even produce a flower," he explained.
The Climate Change Commission’s 2026 national climate change risk assessment, released last week, found New Zealand has already warmed by 1.4C – but that could rise to 3C by 2090.
If global emissions remained high, the three districts most affected by loss of frost in Aotearoa would be Mackenzie with 54 fewer frosts per year, Queenstown Lakes with 50 fewer, and Mackenzie and Central Otago with about 40.
That would likely also reduce habitats for native alpine plants.
University of Otago freshwater science chairman Dr Ross Thompson said the treeline was "maintained by frost and snow".
"The risk is that when you get warmer conditions, we start getting weedy species invading, things like pine."
Warmer winters would also help rats, mice, pest fruit insects, and fungal diseases to survive.
"A lot of the pests and diseases over winter, they'll get killed by super hard frosts," Webb said.
Fewer frosts could also worsen problems like facial eczema in sheep.
However, warmer soil temperatures could lead to more pastures, improve milk production, and help lambs grow faster, Bioeconomy Science Institute principal scientist Dr Robyn Dynes said.
Following the release of the commission's report, the Government has two years to make a national adaption plan.
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