Support for the National Party and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has crashed to new lows in the latest 1News Verian poll.
In contrast, Labour has not only overtaken National for the first time in the poll since before the 2023 election, but the party has climbed into a seven-point lead.
The results of the poll suggest that if an election were held today, the left bloc would knock the coalition out of power, which would make it the first one-term government in New Zealand in more than 50 years.
The left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 66 seats compared to 58 for the right bloc of National, NZ First and ACT.
National would lose 12 seats on these numbers.
There would be an overhang of four seats in Parliament, on the basis that Te Pāti Māori holds on to its six electorate seats, though this is an unlikely scenario given the party's struggling performance in recent months.
The poll of 1010 eligible voters was taken between April 11 and 15.
Labour sits on 37%, moving up by 5% from 32%, while National has gone in the other direction, falling by 4%, down from 34% to 30%.
It's National's worst result since Luxon became leader in November 2021. Under Judith Collins, the party registered 28% in her final poll as leader before she lost the leadership.
Luxon has also registered his worst result in the preferred prime minister rankings since he became the leader of the National Party. He has dropped by 4%, down from 20% to 16%, which puts him below Labour leader Chris Hipkins.
Party vote
Labour has surged to the party's best result since Hipkins' first poll after he became leader in January 2023 when Jacinda Ardern resigned.
In that poll, Labour recorded 38%. Today they've recorded 37%.
The rest of the parties have seen less movement in their results.
The Greens remain steady on 11%, while NZ First, who have been rising sharply in the past year, haven't moved this time and are steady on 10%.
ACT, however, are going backwards, dropping from 9% to 7%.
Te Pāti Māori are steady on 2%.
However, they've been jumped by the Opportunity Party, who climb from 1% to 3% — though unless they pick up an electorate seat or move their vote to 5%, that's not enough to get them into Parliament.
More voters also appear to be making their minds up.
Those who didn't know or refused to say dropped from 11% to 9%.
Preferred PM rankings
Despite his party's success, Hipkins has dropped slightly in the preferred PM stakes. He is now, however, the most popular option for Prime Minister.
He's fallen from 20%, down 1 point to 19%.
Christopher Luxon suffered a bigger fall — he's dropped from 20% to 16%, a 4% drop.
This is his lowest result since becoming the leader of the National Party.
He is also being chased down in the rankings by the NZ First leader.
Winston Peters is up by 2%, moving from 10% to 12%. Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was up 1% to 6%, while ACT leader David Seymour is steady on 4%.
Senior National minister Chris Bishop, who suffered two portfolio losses in the recent reshuffle, has once again nudged above the 1% mark.
Christopher Luxon's senior colleagues stood behind him as he faced speculation that a horror poll result could spell the end for his time as Prime Minister. (Source: 1News)
He's up to 2%, where he was at Christmas time.
Rounding out the honourable mentions at 1% are Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Education Minister Erica Stanford, former prime minister Dame Jacinda Ardern, senior Labour MP Kieran McAnulty and Te Pāti Māori's Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke.
Economic outlook
The poll’s findings on the state of the economy show the public expressing serious doubts about its future.
Economic optimism is down by 14% to 26%, while pessimism is up by 21% to 52%.
The result comes ahead of Tuesday's inflation announcement, with the Reserve Bank having already warned that inflation could rise in the coming months.
Full poll results
Party vote
Labour – 37% (up 5% since February)
National – 30% (down 4%)
Greens – 11% (steady)
NZ First – 10% (steady)
ACT – 7% (down 2%)
Opportunity Party - 3% (up 2%)
Te Pāti Māori – 2% (steady)
Don't know / refused to say – 9% (down 2%)
Seats in the House
Labour – 47
National– 37
Greens – 13
NZ First – 13
ACT – 8
Te Pāti Māori – 6
Total: 124
Preferred prime minister
Chris Hipkins – 19% (down 1%)
Christopher Luxon – 16% (down 4%)
Winston Peters – 12% (up 2%)
Chlöe Swarbrick – 6% (up 1%)
David Seymour – 4% (steady)
Chris Bishop - 2% (up 1%)
See the full poll results here
Between April 11 and April 15 2026, 1010 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (500) and online, using online panels (510). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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