Analysis: 1News Political Editor Maiki Sherman on the implications for the Prime Minister of a poll result which would see the coalition kicked out of power.
Christopher Luxon is in serious trouble. There is no simpler way to say it.
The latest 1News Verian poll suggests that if an election were held tomorrow, Luxon’s coalition government would be voted out.
Goneburger, as they say.
National, ACT, and NZ First would not have the numbers to govern. It is an unenviable position to be in just over six months out from an election.
What’s worse is that the numbers reaffirm similar recent polls, which have largely headed in the same direction. Results which in recent weeks have spooked the coalition faithful and unleashed a swirl of speculation over Luxon’s leadership.
National has dropped by four points to 30% in the latest 1News poll – straddling the very thin line of dipping into the dangerous twenties.
In fact, if we dig deeper into the results, National technically registered at 29.7%. Ouch.
The style of the 1News Verian poll has always been to round to the nearest whole number, meaning it will be for the public to debate where the party truly sits.
Either way, it won’t just be the Parliament division bells ringing in the ears of the coalition parties this week. These numbers are sure to raise alarm within National and the inevitable impact on the governing fortunes of its coalition partners.
NZ First, at least, is steady on 10%, locking in its own support, which has doubled over the past year. The ACT Party, however, has dropped by two points and is now on 7%.
In total, that would give the coalition 58 seats in Parliament. Not nearly enough to reach the 63 needed to remain in power when factoring in an overhang.
It is a nightmare proposition for any coalition and spurs on the opposition’s booming calls to make this a one-term government.
Voter support gradually firming
The undecided vote is also down two points on 9%, meaning voters who were once unsure about who to back are now slowly lining up behind a particular party.
And therein lies the problem for the coalition.
With more voters deciding where to go, and National and ACT losing support, the question becomes, where is that support going?
The answer – a big chunk has gone to Labour.
Labour has leapfrogged National and is now the most popular party in the country, with a seven-point gap between the two main parties. It is a seismic shift from February's poll, which had National out ahead on 34% while Labour tailed closely behind on 32%.
As the sands began to shift, that result arguably kept Luxon’s detractors at bay – but that argument has now slipped away.
The tables have turned on Christopher Luxon, and it’s Chris Hipkins who has taken the lead – both in party support and preferred PM.
In February, both the Chrises were neck and neck on 20% in preferred PM stakes. Fast forward two months, and Luxon’s personal popularity has taken a big hit. He is down four points to 16%, which is Luxon’s worst result since taking over the party leadership.
Hipkins, on the other hand, dipped by one point to 19%.
Overall, this is a white-knuckle poll that will whip up extreme excitement in those on the left side of politics and extreme fear for those on the right.
So, just how did the Prime Minister get here?
There is no single explanation for how Luxon got here, but a pattern has emerged — one that stretches from his personal style to forces well beyond his control.
Christopher Luxon is a CEO by trade who has never truly managed to make the necessary transition into a politician. This has marred his tenure as Prime Minister.
The warning signs were there from the start.
On day one of being party leader, Luxon bypassed the 200m walk from his apartment, which sits directly opposite Parliament and instead arrived by limousine.
It was the same apartment he’d later hit the headlines for after claiming a $52,000 accommodation allowance from the taxpayer despite owning the home mortgage-free. He rightly said he was “entitled” to the money, but the optics were off.
The PM had earlier said there was no problem with taking the supplement despite free accommodation available at Premier House. (Source: 1News)
There are many more examples of the Prime Minister being “wealthy and sorted” that would make the list. Despite attempts to label the criticism as tall poppy syndrome, the reality is that Luxon never appeared particularly well-versed in the art of politics.
He would have done well to master what John Key did before him.
Key came from a similar background, from humble beginnings to a stellar career — he entered Parliament with a multimillion-dollar portfolio. But he rarely made decisions that drew attention to his privilege. He never let it create a wedge between him and voters.
Key also didn’t take himself too seriously, nor did he let his frustrations boil to the surface — because that is when the mask slips and one’s own weaknesses are on full display.
Luxon, on the other hand, has fallen into this trap all too often, particularly with the media. For any Prime Minister, every word and every decision is scrutinised to the highest degree. It comes with the territory. The reason why the PM has struggled with this throughout his time in office is that he is overly conditioned to being the boss.
The prime minister quickly changed his tune on Friday when he saw what the public thought of him taking $1000 a week in taxpayer money to live in his Wellington apartment. (Source: 1News)
He asks the questions and demands the answers — not the other way around.
While he may now hold the highest position in the country, the public is his boss — that includes 3.7 million voters who all have opinions and who all get a say.
Luxon has never had to defend or justify his decisions to the levels at which he does now. Not least to the media, whom he bemoaned from day one as playing "parlour games" which set the tone for his often-strained relationship with the fourth estate.
Yes, his heart is in the right place, and his intentions are well-meaning, but the same could be argued for every other politician in Parliament.
The economy and geopolitics
National promised to get the country back on track. While the party often points to the “mess” and “economic vandalism” left behind by Labour, including on public debt and spending, the Government has been accused by critics of spending just as much.
Inflation briefly returned to the target band but has crept back out, and the Iran conflict now threatens to undo whatever fragile progress was made.
Voters were told to knuckle down. Many feel they did, and got little in return.
With the cost-of-living continuing to rise, high electricity prices, and soaring fuel costs, it seems possible that many have simply had enough.
And yet, it is on the global stage where the Prime Minister has often performed his best. It's where he feels comfortable and where his business acumen works well.
Securing an in-principle free trade agreement with India was a major coup and would go down as one of the preeminent achievements of the National-led coalition.
The challenge for the Government, however, lies in growing geopolitical instability, which threatens global security and economies. Both Luxon and his Foreign Minister Winston Peters have had to walk a tight rope on various fronts with various countries.
More than 60 firms want parties to put their differences aside to get agreement over the line. (Source: 1News)
From the tug of war between the US and China, the public breakdown in the relationship with the Cook Islands government, Russia's unlawful invasion of Ukraine, the war in Gaza, and the most recent US-Israel attacks on Iran — throughout it all — the New Zealand Government has faced continued critique over the appropriateness of its responses.
Luxon’s subpar attempt at articulating New Zealand’s position on the ongoing crisis in the Middle East will go down as one of his more memorable press conferences.
The Prime Minister says he is "very confident" that he has the "full support" of the National Party caucus. (Source: 1News)
He struggled to get his words out, which for many reinforced the perception that the position was weak to begin with, and his lack of confidence when it comes to the media has seen more similar gaffes in recent weeks.
Luxon’s relentless efforts to reset the books and the economy are now being put at risk, and there is little he can do about it. Voters, meanwhile, will not look far to find someone to blame, and the latest poll numbers suggest that target is being locked in.
It's game on
The clock is now ticking for the Prime Minister.
For a party that spent six years in opposition, National and its supporters will not want to be pulled back into the past so quickly.
Notwithstanding the embarrassment of having the title as a one-term government permanently inked onto one's record. That is rare for New Zealand and hasn’t occurred in more than 50 years. It has also never happened for a National-led government.
While Luxon may attempt his repeated rendition of not commenting on the polls, he has always qualified that with the fact that they all say different things. Now, they do not.
The polls are all pointing in a similar direction, and it is not good news for the government.
Having dished out a bit of cold revenge in his recent reshuffle, Luxon will now need to keep his supporters and allies extremely close.
Chris Bishop has been the most publicised threat to Luxon, though insiders have stopped short of confirming anything concrete. The most telling was the PM's reshuffle moves, which stripped him of his favoured roles as Leader of the House, election campaign chair for National, and abolished the cricket-mad minister’s associate sports portfolio.
It was a clear warning shot to any would-be detractors, while also handing those roles instead to PM loyalists Simeon Brown and Louise Upston.
But now it is Luxon himself who is on notice.
The problem with holding others to high standards is that you must be able to back it up yourself. If Luxon is not performing, then the threat of those who feel they’ve been overlooked or treated badly by him will become more pronounced.
It will embolden parts of the caucus to act — either those who hold a grudge or those who believe their personal ambition is at risk due to Luxon’s weak support among voters.
That is when the knives come out, or, to put it more politely, that is when the ultimatums are made and a select few start running the numbers.
It is also not just MPs within his own caucus that the Prime Minister should be worried about — those in the wider party leadership will be equally concerned.
A return to the opposition benches would cost National's members, supporters, and stakeholders significant influence over policy and the country's direction.
For the party hierarchy that will hold more weight than the potential bruised ego of any one individual, even a Prime Minister.
It’s the type of consideration that all parties grapple with when a party leader is flailing.
The question is how long a leash Christopher Luxon will be given by his party in the hopes he can turn its fortunes around before it is forced to pull him in and take back control of an unsustainable slide in support.
Remembering that back in August 2017, the then-Labour leader Andrew Little made the dramatic decision to resign just seven weeks out from the election. It saw the rise of Jacinda Ardern, who ultimately led the party to victory.
It is difficult to predict whether leaving it so late would benefit or harm National, and if there is a similar leader-in-waiting who could garner the support to remain in power.
Either way, something needs to change.
Whether that is the leader or the approach is for the party to deliberate.
With just over six months until the election on November 7, there's still plenty more water to flow under the bridge. National has time to turn its numbers around, but it won’t be easy. It is now crystal clear that this election is up for grabs.
It is game on.
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