Senior National MP Chris Bishop has flatly denied plotting to overthrow leader Christopher Luxon, but said some have been "talking out of school" as a looming new poll threatens to potentially deepen pressure on the PM.
Bishop, who faced what many viewed as a demotion in the Prime Minister's Cabinet reshuffle earlier this month, told Q+A's Jack Tame this morning: "No, absolutely not," when asked if he was plotting to overthrow the National leader.
"29.4% is not a great result for the National Party. I'm just being straight up," Bishop said.
"National Party people watching today, a bunch of supporters saying they want us to be higher, and I want us to be higher, and the Prime Minister wants us to be higher."
He said Luxon "deserves a lot of credit" for holding together his three-way coalition, and that he did not know of anyone in caucus who thought the PM should not be leader.
The results of a new 1News Verian poll, carried out amid the fuel crisis and after the PM's Cabinet reshuffle, will be released at 6pm tonight.
Parliament returns for a two-week sitting block tomorrow before recessing again ahead of Budget 2026, a window which multiple commentators have identified as the moment National's leadership question needed to be dealt with ahead of November's election.
Some 'talking out of school'
Recent polling has consistently shown the National hovering around or below 30%, with the party yet to arrest a slide that has persisted for months.
Tonight's poll will reveal whether that trend has deepened further.
Bishop acknowledged in his Q+A interview today that polling in the low-30s was "not a great result for the National Party", and conceded those who had spoken to media were "unhappy" — something he called "a statement of fact".
"It's obviously some people have been talking out of school — that is not the right way to do things. That is unhelpful and untidy and indicates that the National Party is focused on ourselves rather than focused on the country," he said.
Christopher Luxon's senior colleagues stood behind him as he faced speculation that a horror poll result could spell the end for his time as Prime Minister. (Source: 1News)
"The public elect us to focus on them rather than on ourselves, and that's what we've got to do, because we're facing a fuel crisis. We're in very difficult times economically - that's been exacerbated by Iran and the situation in the Middle East.
"We've got a massive programme of reform that we need to get it get done before the next election, and then we need to put our best foot forward in the election campaign.
"That's what our focus should be, and that's what my focus is."
Asked directly whether he would put his hand up for the leadership if the role became vacant before the election, Bishop said: "No, and it's a ridiculous question, because there isn't a vacancy, and Christopher Luxon is doing a great job as our leader and prime minister, and he will lead us into the election."
Luxon's personal standing in approval and preferred prime minister ratings have also come under scrutiny, with the PM tracking below Labour's leader in several recent polls.
Leadership speculation reaches fever pitch
Today's poll will land days after reports MPs were moving to replace Luxon as National leader could happen within the next fortnight, and TVNZ's Breakfast's Tova O'Brien revealed a National MP had told her the numbers were "probably there" to unseat him.
The MP said the preference was for Luxon to stand down rather than be rolled.
"Nobody wants blood to spill. Anything other than him stepping down would be a nightmare and he knows that," the MP said in a text to 1News.
The Prime Minister says he is "very confident" that he has the "full support" of the National Party caucus. (Source: 1News)
Luxon moved to shut down the talk at a media conference in Pōkeno on Friday, telling reporters he was "confident I have the numbers" and claimed that if an election were held today, the coalition government would be re-elected.
He said last week that public polling he had seen supported that.
"There is more work for the National Party to do," he said.
"The way we do that is we demonstrate that we can get this economy growing again for New Zealanders, so we can lower the cost of living for them."
Whip concerns
The Herald reported National's Party whip Stuart Smith could not contact Luxon during Parliament's last sitting a fortnight ago to relay the concerns of backbench MPs.
A spokesperson for the PM said Luxon had a "busy diary" but was "always available to MPs", and had spent the day with Smith on Tuesday.
Liam Hehir said there was a group of disgruntled MPs, but they were not Ministers and there was no single leader behind the potential move. (Source: Breakfast)
On Friday, Luxon bluntly rejected the report: "That's just wrong. I was with Stuart Smith all of Tuesday in North Canterbury, travelling with him in his electorate all day."
Bishop told Q+A today that the first he had heard of the reported incident involving party whip Stuart Smith was when the Herald article appeared on Friday, and that he did not believe Luxon thought he had tried to organise a leadership change behind his back.
Political commentator Liam Hehir, who was formerly active in the National Party, told Breakfast he was aware of "a group of disgruntled MPs" pushing for change, but said none of them were ministers.
"Of all the names that were mentioned to me, they were all sort of people whose careers had stalled, they'd kind of been a bit disgraced, and haven't become ministers," Hehir said. He added there was "no sort of leader" behind the push.
Ministers rallied behind Luxon on Friday. Finance Minister Nicola Willis told RNZ from the US she was "100%" behind him and that her support had "never wavered".
The ongoing speculation about the PM's leadership of National has persisted through the summer and has now likely become a defining theme of his current term.
Few other sitting prime ministers have faced such persistent and sustained public speculation about their leadership without it crystallising into a formal challenge.
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