Analysis: Over the last five years New Zealand's prison population has substantially dropped at the same time as concerns over crime rates have more than doubled.
Labour can't point to data that suggests their lower prisoner numbers have led to lower crime rates. Whether there is any meaningful and significant causal effect between the lower prison population and higher reported crimes rates is unclear.
Six years ago, it was a different story. In 2017, Labour confidently framed a lower prison population as a good thing.
In the 2017 election campaign the party pledged to reduce the overall prison population by 30% within 15 years, and the then-Corrections spokesperson Kelvin Davis took particular interest in reducing the Māori prison population.
Once Labour came to power, Davis significantly reduced the size of a prison rebuild at Waikeria and announced a national strategy to lower the Māori prison population in line with the general population.
So far, the impacts of this approach are mixed. Despite the Government's intentions, the Māori prison population has actually increased from 50% of all prisoners in March of 2018 to almost 53% in March this year. Given Māori make up approximately 17% of the general population, this record remains a national disgrace.
But Labour has overseen a substantial drop in the overall prison population. From a peak in March 2018 of 10,820 prisoners, New Zealand's overall prison population has dropped 23% to 8376 total prisoners in March of this year.
In a different election campaign, you might expect the Government to be singing a little louder about such a substantial reduction. Both Bill English and Jacinda Ardern described prisons as a 'moral and fiscal failure'. But given public concerns over crime, it's unlikely Labour will be plastering its prison record on billboards on TV advertisements ahead of October's election.
They will at least have some support from the prime minister's Chief Science Advisor, who as part of this week's report into gang harm, said "we can't and won't arrest ourselves out of the gang problem".
The PM's team of top experts have come up with an alternative plan to tackle gangs. (Source: 1News)
The line was immediately seized upon by opposition MPs as an example of a soft approach to criminal activity.
But it's true, of course.
What many of the tough-on-crime advocates neglect to mention is that unless New Zealand plans on introducing life sentences across the board, the vast majority of people incarcerated will be released back into society at some point. Given the relatively limited mental health, addiction, and rehabilitative support offered to prisoners – and the general societal stigma against those with criminal records – locking up more people for longer only delays issues when they re-enter society.
Locking more people up is a predictable point of contention during an election year. What neither of the major parties has really tackled in the campaign so far is the role and function of our prison system. Is it prisons' primary function to punish inmates? To rehabilitate them? To keep the general population safe?
The Ministry of Justice says roughly 70% of people with previous convictions are reconvicted within two years following a release from prison. A true tough-on-crime approach might more radically prioritise improving this statistic. Otherwise locking more people up for longer is no more than a temporary solution.
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