National on top, NZ First drops in the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll

Jessica Mutch McKay
Source: 1News

National has maintained its lead in the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, while NZ First has taken a hit - dropping below the minimum needed to gain a place in Parliament without an electoral seat.  

National received 45 per cent support, rising one per cent, Labour remained close behind on 43 per cent, increasing one per cent since  June's poll , and the Green Party stayed on six per cent.

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll Party Vote

NZ First dropped down to 3.3 per cent from five per cent. The Māori Party, which is not in Parliament, rose up to 1.1 per cent support from 0.5 per cent. ACT received one per cent support and New Conservative gained 0.8 per cent. 

- National Party: 45% - (Up 1%)
- Labour Party : 43% - (Up 1%)
- Green Party: 6% - (Steady)
- New Zealand First: 3% - (Down 2%)
- Māori Party: 1% - (Up 1%)
- ACT: 1% - (Steady)
- New Conservative: 1% - (Steady)

Don't know (11%) or refused to answer (3%).

Those polled were asked which political party they would vote for.  Read 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll results from June. 

Seats in Parliament based on 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll results 

National Party - 57
Labour Party - 55
Green Party - 7
ACT Party - 1 (assuming it wins one electorate seat)

Commenting on why National were ahead, Prime Minister and Labour leader Jacinda Ardern said, "I try not to be too fixated on polls".

Jacinda Ardern.  file

"Regardless of what numbers are telling us, I'm not going to be satisfied so long as we have some of those big challenges we've got to take on in New Zealand, that's our focus. 

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"We need to keep focusing on issues and working as hard as we can. Making sure we've got a 30 year plan rather than a three year plan. That's our focus, rather than poll to poll."

On NZ First's drop, Ms Ardern said that "none of us are taking anything for granted".

"Allegations are one thing, but evidence is something else," Mr Peters told TVNZ1's Q+A last night.

"With the smaller parties, I think the movement we've seen really are movements within margin of error.  In MMP it's not unusual that you see those kinds of movements. Obviously come election time, everything changes."

National leader Simon Bridges said National's result was pleasing, "but I totally get we've got a lot more work to do and we're still a long way from the election". 

Simon Bridges National

"We've still got a huge amount of work to do, we're busy on policy. It is about holding the Government to account but also making sure New Zealanders have a real sense of our positive plans for our country. 

"What it does show is a Government that New Zealanders are increasingly seeing failing to deliver on its promises. There is a sense for New Zealanders, this is not what we purchased. They're not living up to the hype and they're failing to deliver their promises."

Preferred PM

A new face has made an appearance as preferred Prime Minister in the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, as Jacinda Ardern maintains her significant lead ahead of Simon Bridges.

- Jacinda Ardern: 41% (Down 4%)
- Judith Collins: 6% (Steady)
- Simon Bridges: 6% (Up 1%)
- Winston Peters: 2% (Down 3%)

The National leader's one per cent bump since  June 9  sees him neck-and-neck with colleague Judith Collins on six per cent. However, outgoing Air New Zealand chief executive Christopher Luxon, rumoured to have National Party political intentions, made his way onto the rank with one per cent. 

Jacinda Ardern is on 41 per cent, despite dropping four per cent since June's poll, sits 35 per cent ahead of her nearest competitors.

Thirty-two per cent did not know, four per cent did not have a preferred PM and two per cent refused to answer.

Economic outlook

Optimism 32% (Down 2%) 
Pessimism 41% (Up 3%)

Forty-one per cent thought the economy would be worse over the next 12 months, 27 per cent thought it would remain the same and 32 per cent thought it would be better. 

A pessimistic economic outlook also rose to 41 per cent in the October, 2018, 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Polls results. 

"We are facing pretty tumultuous times in the international environment, the trade war between the US and China, it is having an impact globally," Ms Ardern said. 

"When you look at New Zealand compared to our international counterparts, we're performing strongly, we're running a surplus, unemployment is low, we've got good wage growth and growth generally in the economy. Relative to other countries, we're doing well - but I do acknowledge the international environment right now is tough."

Mr Bridges said the results "haven't been this bad since the Great Financial Crisis".

"You don't have anything here that really should be the case other than the Government that has piled on uncertainty." 

Between July 20 to 24, 1003 eligible voters were polled via landline and mobile phone. The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.