When Russia fires a ballistic missile at Ukraine, air-defence systems have only minutes — sometimes seconds — to detect and intercept the deadly threat.
The lack of time has left Kyiv and other cities increasingly exposed to devastating attacks by the missiles that come down so fast and so steeply that Ukraine says only the US-made Patriot defence system can stop them. But Ukraine says it has too few batteries and interceptors to protect itself.
Unlike cruise missiles, which behave like pilotless planes, ballistic missiles are launched like rockets and then dive steeply toward their targets at several times the speed of sound.
That sharply reduces the time available to find and destroy a warhead. The result has been repeated attacks like the latest barrage on the Ukrainian capital that targeted a brewery, a warehouse and a mail-sorting office. At least 17 people were killed and dozens more wounded, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday.
When the warhead is hurled toward its target, "it’s very, very steep and it’s going at a ridiculous speed", said Thomas Withington, an expert on electronic warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, who compared the physics to playing catch. If the ball is "going really fast, it’s harder to catch".
Russia’s ground-launched Iskander-M missile is the Kremlin’s main ballistic missile. Another example is the air-launched Kinzhal missile. Russia has also fired S-300 and S-400 air-defence missiles at ground targets. A model known as the Zircon is technically a hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile, but its high speed resembles that of a ballistic missile and creates a similar interception problem.
Here's a look at the challenge of shielding Ukraine from some of Russia's deadliest projectiles.
Patriot system offers some protection
The most capable Patriot system supplied to Ukraine is designed for high-speed missile defence. Instead of exploding near a target, the PAC-3 system uses a maneuverable interceptor designed to collide with an incoming warhead. The Patriot technology must track the missile, predict its path and launch within minutes, sometimes leaving seconds for the final engagement.
Patriots are currently the only system in Ukrainian service able to intercept the Russian Iskander-M, S-400 and Zircon missiles, according to Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat. The United States and its allies operate other anti-ballistic systems, including THAAD and sea-based Aegis defences, but they have not been provided to Ukraine.
Even Patriot protection is not guaranteed. When a Patriot battery is absent, out of position or short of missiles, most other Ukrainian defences cannot substitute for it.
Ukraine has too few batteries to shield every city. Russia combines ballistic missiles with cruise missiles, drones and decoys, forcing defenders to track many threats and ration scarce interceptors.
Shortage of interceptors is only a part of a global problem
The interceptor shortage has become more acute as the US-Israeli war with Iran has consumed large numbers of Patriot and THAAD interceptors. An analysis by The Associated Press estimated that the US Patriot inventory had fallen by at least 65% from its prewar level, while the Pentagon said it retained a deep arsenal.
Production cannot immediately close the gap. Lockheed Martin delivered more than 600 PAC-3 MSE interceptors in 2025 and is working toward annual capacity of 2000 by the end of 2030. NATO says Europe’s first Patriot missile production facility is expected to open in September in Germany.
Political signals from Washington have also shifted. At a NATO summit last month in Turkey, US President Donald Trump said the United States would give Ukraine a license to produce Patriots. About three weeks later, he said he had not made a final decision. Even with a license, officials and experts told AP that starting production in Ukraine would take years.
Ukraine aims at the archer instead of the arrow
Ukraine is also trying to destroy Russian missile launchers and infrastructure before missiles can be fired — shooting the archer instead of the arrow.
People familiar with the discussions told AP that Zelensky asked Trump to help secure Elon Musk’s permission for Ukrainian forces to use Starlink communications for targeting inside Russia, where Musk has restricted the service.
Such access could help Ukrainian drones hunt launchers and related infrastructure, reducing the number of missiles Patriot batteries must face. The request had not been publicly confirmed by the White House, the Ukrainian Embassy or SpaceX.
Kyiv is also developing Freya, a proposed Ukrainian-led, lower-cost anti-ballistic system intended to reduce dependence on Patriots. Ukraine and nine European countries formed a coalition in July to pursue a shared missile-defense capability, with Zelensky saying they could jointly develop a mass-produced system within 12 months. Freya remains under development, and it is unclear when it could become operational.
Following the most recent Russian ballistic attack on Kyiv, Zelensky said Ukraine received only one-third as many air-defence missiles in the first half of 2026 as in the same period last year. He said Ukraine's partners that are unwilling to increase interceptor deliveries immediately should instead impose new sanctions, noting that a significant share of Russia’s ballistic missile production has been untouched by sanctions.
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