The 40-year wait for an Indian prime minister to visit New Zealand ends tomorrow – and a new report suggests Narendra Modi will arrive to find a diaspora punching well above its weight, contributing $37bn to the Kiwi economy.
The figure, equivalent to 8.6% of total GDP in the year to March 2025, comes from a report by consultancy Infometrics, sponsored by the Ethnic Communities Ministry and the Indian High Commission, and commissioned by the Waitakere Indian Association.
The report, being launched in Auckland this evening, found the community's contribution supported more than 220,000 full-time equivalent jobs, with Indian businesses accounting for just under three-quarters of the total.
It also argued Kiwi Indians held the key to unlocking the benefits of the India-New Zealand free trade agreement, expected to come into force later this year.
"The free trade agreement is a pathway or channel for the two countries to strengthen both economies through mutual cooperation. Kiwi Indians are, and will be, essential to that," said Waitakere Indian Association president Sunil Kaushal.
Political divisions heightened as Govt succeeds in getting the deal over the line. (Source: 1News)
"Kiwi Indians are in a unique position, bridging both the Indian and New Zealand cultures and economies, meaning they can facilitate the connection of people, businesses, and institutions … helping realise the economic benefits of the FTA for all New Zealanders."
The report noted the Kiwi Indian population in New Zealand grew 27% between 2018 and 2023 to reach 330,000, overtaking the ethnic Chinese community to become the largest minority outside of Māori and Pacific peoples.
It is projected to reach 626,000 by 2043 – about 10% of the projected population.
Fifty-nine per cent of overseas-born Kiwi Indians had arrived within the last nine years, compared with 45% of Chinese migrants born overseas.
The report also found the community was becoming more productive and better paid.
Median personal incomes rose 47% between 2018 and 2023, compared with 31% for the total population, and 46% of Kiwi Indians hold a bachelor's degree or higher, compared with 27% of the total population.
The agreement is set to be signed in the first half of next year. (Source: 1News)
Ministry for Ethnic Communities chief executive Pratima Namasivayam said the findings described "a community that is growing, highly qualified, increasingly entrepreneurial and making a significant impact across New Zealand's economy".
The report found its economic footprint was shifting away from sectors such as retail, accommodation and food service towards professional and specialist sectors – a change it said positioned Kiwi Indians as conduits for the "trade in services" side of the FTA.
"The free trade agreement gives New Zealand access to a rising Indian middle class that is increasingly demanding high-value products such as international education, professional services, tourism and fintech," the report stated.
The deal also included in-study and post-study work rights, giving Indian students certainty that immigration rules will not change mid-study, while New Zealand was prevented from imposing enrolment caps on India.
The report said the agreement facilitated career pathways for Indian graduates into high-demand fields such as ICT, engineering and specialised healthcare.
The world's fifth largest economy has risen to become New Zealand's 13th biggest trading partner. (Source: 1News)
Visitors and students returning
Indian visitor arrivals reached 81,000 in 2025 – 19% above their pre-pandemic peak – with spending hitting $336 million, up 27% on the previous pre-pandemic high.
Almost half of those visitors came to see friends and relatives, compared with 31% of all arrivals, a pattern the report said made the growth more resilient than pure tourism.
Kaushal said the diaspora was "helping unlock New Zealand's next tourism market", with much of the growth driven by the strength of the community already living here.
Indian students were also returning at a higher-value level, he said.
More than 1000 international students were unable to begin study in semester one, 1News can reveal. (Source: 1News)
Overall enrolments remained 12% below 2019, but students were taking longer, higher-level courses, with master's-level study up 228% over the same period.
But the report also noted retail crime targeting small business owners remained an issue, alongside migrant exploitation and a lack of jobs for new arrivals, with Indian-trained nurses in particular reporting difficulty finding work despite holding valid visas.
It also pointed to the doubling of student visa application fees, from $375 to $750 in October 2024, as an added financial burden for prospective students and their families.
Modi visit caps trade push
Modi's arrival in Auckland late tomorrow will be the first time an Indian prime minister touches down in four decades, and comes as the Government puts the trade relationship at the centre of its re-election pitch. His visit will officially begin on Saturday.
Free trade negotiations will continue as closer security ties are agreed, reports 1News political editor Maiki Sherman. (Source: 1News)
Earlier this week, Trade Minister Todd McClay said Kiwi exporters were already enjoying a "halo effect" before the deal takes force.
"We've seen this pattern with other trade deals. Exports start growing as soon as people spot the opportunity, and the India free trade agreement is no different," McClay said.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, speaking to media on Monday, condemned politicians "whipping up" anti-immigrant sentiment.
"They have left their countries, whether they've come from India or anywhere else in the world, left their culture, their friends, their family, and they come here," he said.
"They're a great example of people of ambition and inspiration. They shouldn't be denigrated or vilified."
Foreign Minister Winston Peters, whose party opposes the trade deal, would not be meeting Modi, with Luxon describing the absence as "quite normal".
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