TVNZ sports commentator and writer Scotty Stevenson and 1News sports writer Patrick McKendry tackle this week's burning questions at the World Cup.
Scotty, the vibe from the All Blacks seems positive after their break in the south of France. There is pressure on to beat Italy in Lyon on Saturday to stay on track for the quarter-finals but for me it also seems to be an opportunity to break the shackles a bit on attack.
What do you think New Zealand’s coaches want to see from their team against the Azzurri?
SS: Yes, it all feels incredibly upbeat from an All Blacks’ point of view. I think they would have enjoyed being out of the tournament limelight this week while their rivals garnered the headlines. I can’t remember a time when there was so little chat about the New Zealanders at a World Cup, and I think that bodes well for a statement performance of their own this weekend.
They will be raring to go against the Italians, but I think more than any other on-field quality, the All Blacks coaches want to see excellent game management and control. The penalty problems that have plagued this team need to be put to rest in this match, if for no other reason than to illustrate to the match officials that they can play right up to the line, and not past it.
Ethan de Groot (suspension) is the only player not available for selection, and it will be fascinating to see the mix of this team. We’ll cover that soon, but before we do…
There has been no time in history when a World Cup match against Italy has even slightly elevated the pulse of an All Blacks fan. Do you really think Italy are a genuine threat, or is the fanbase here simply paying the premium on an emotional insurance policy?
PM: I get a feeling the raised anxiety levels are a result of the All Blacks’ recent inconsistency and poor discipline. More significantly perhaps, I feel like at this tournament we’re seeing a changing of the guard in terms of Northern Hemisphere dominance over their southern rivals. There’s probably a general sense of pessimism in New Zealand because of that, plus the unwanted records the All Blacks have set under Ian Foster. Will Italy add to that on Saturday? I seriously doubt it because there will be pressure on them too and they lacked a bit of resilience at this year’s Six Nations in losing all five matches. At No.11 in the world, they’re even ranked below Australia (10th)! (Sorry, couldn’t resist).
Jason Ryan said overnight that Ireland and South Africa have “set the bar” in terms of forward intensity and I think we’ll get that from the All Blacks in Lyon. That pack needs to deliver around the field by running hard at weak shoulders so they can dominate the breakdown. This will be imperative in a potential quarter-final and I think they’ll do it.
Look for Shannon Frizell, Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Samisoni Taukei’aho et al to charge in there.
Speaking of Frizell, who is coming back from a hamstring injury, another recent casualty, Jordie Barrett, is likely to return from a niggling knee issue to the No.12 jersey.
We’ve spoken before about Barrett’s power in the midfield, but he’ll be a big boost, won’t he? Are you any expecting any other changes? Does Beauden Barrett remain an automatic selection at fullback, for instance?
SS: The return of Jordie Barrett will settle a few nerves in the midfield, through which the Italians like to attack. Barrett’s developed a good understanding with Rieko Ioane, who I also expect to be at centre for this match. Furthermore, his size gives Richie Mo’unga options to punch out of danger or to strike off set-piece.
Too much has been invested in Beauden Barrett for him to be written off now. He is still capable of producing smart plays, and I think we will see him refine his kicking this weekend. To me, it would be anathema to this selection panel to deviate from plans with this standing as the last ‘true’ test before the quarterfinals. Will Jordan should keep his spot on the right wing.
Expect to see Retallick return to partner Sam Whitelock in the second row, and Sam Cane suit up in No.7 to captain the side. Frizell is the obvious choice at blindside, which means Scott Barrett will likely be on the bench. Don’t be surprised to see Ethan Blackadder in that reserve pack, either.
Ryan will be keen to give Tyrel Lomax some minutes, should he be deemed fully recovered from that nasty cut. Dane Coles would be useful as starting hooker just for sheer tone-setting in the early exchanges. It’s Codie Taylor for me off the bench in this one in a 5-3 split. Cam Roigard, Damian McKenzie and Anton Leinert-Brown to fill the backline finisher spots.
As for the Italians, you’ve already mentioned they were behind the pack in the Six Nations. How do you see them approaching this match, and do they have specific strengths through which they could trouble the New Zealanders?
PM: Italy has the fastest ruck speed of all Tier 1 nations, according to the statistics, so they will obviously attempt to play at pace to put the All Blacks’ defence under pressure. In this respect, the All Blacks will have to stay connected and consistently remain onside – the latter has been an issue at this World Cup, even against Namibia.
But the old saying, often applied to professional sport, that ‘your greatest strength is also your greatest weakness’ applies here. The All Blacks like playing with quick ball too and so Italy’s style will likely suit them, just as Australia’s high-tempo does. Get it wrong and turn the ball over, and the All Blacks may find their counter-attacking mojo.
For what it’s worth, I agree with you about Beauden – the All Blacks need his kicking game at least at the back. I’m also looking forward to seeing the behemoth prop Tamaiti Williams taking the field for his first World Cup match. And Tyrel Lomax’s impending return is hugely important.
The All Blacks have talked up Italy’s set piece, but you can bet they’ll have a real crack in this area.
Looking beyond the All Blacks, the other big matches at the weekend include Japan v Samoa, Fiji v Georgia and South Africa v Tonga. Which are you looking forward to watching the most?
SS: Just before we look beyond the All Blacks, one point on the set piece that I think deserves mentioning – New Zealand’s success percentage in both scrum and lineout was superior to France’s in the opening match. The numbers on that occasion were also superior to South Africa’s and Ireland’s in their fixture last week. I don’t think the set piece is the problem area for New Zealand.
But… to another weekend of blockbusters we go. I hate to say it but the South Africa v Tonga clash is a foregone conclusion. I had warned before the tournament that the gap between the haves and have-nots would again prove too much in France, and adding to Tonga’s existing problems is the loss of Vaea Fifita through suspension.
Tonga came into the World Cup with a backline of stars but the pack was ground down by Ireland, and it will be more of the same this weekend against the Boks.
Japan v Samoa holds more intrigue. On paper you would think both teams are fighting for third but there are some interesting permutations in Pool D. With Argentina assured of a bonus point against Chile, both Japan and Samoa also need the bonus point result this weekend. If Japan manages to bag all five, their final match against the Pumas is a winner takes all. If Samoa manage the feat, they will have to overcome England in their last match to make it through. That’s a tall order.
As for Fiji v Georgia, on paper there is only one winner here. Fiji will officially qualify for the quarter-finals with a bonus point victory and given they can do so with a round to spare, they’ll be dialled in to the task at hand. Georgia’s flop draw with Portugal tells us they have declined as a team. I don’t think they can live with an expansive, expressive Fijian side that is in control of its own destiny.
Speaking of destiny, the rumblings and grumblings continue across the Tasman. I would love to know your thoughts a few days on from the latest clown show in the Eddie Jones circus. Does Rugby Australia pull the pin, or does Jones fall on his sword? And how big is this Japanese bonfire, considering the amount of smoke?
PM: I’ll go with the second question first: I think we’re talking about a towering inferno. Jones will hide behind semantics about whether it was a job interview, but I think his role with Australia is untenable and that the chairman Hamish McLennan will have to sack him (or ask him to leave, to indulge in semantics myself) to save his own job. The Wallabies looked utterly bereft of ideas and skill in the second half against Wales and Jones contributed to that by picking the wrong people. McLennan needs a scapegoat, so goodbye Eddie and hello more chaos in Aussie rugby.
Thanks cobber.
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