Analysis: The polls show a clear trend, but Labour's not a write-off yet, writes 1News digital political reporter Felix Desmarais.
Chris Hipkins is suddenly on form on the campaign trail after a shaky start.
After handing out donuts to undecided voter students, he was asked if he thought they might have swung any votes.
"I can't promise donuts for everybody," he said.
Probably just as well he ruled that out, given there's very little room to budge in future government spending, after yesterday's Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update.
But Hipkins was in his element today in Dunedin, yarning with students, first at the Otago University medical school, and later at a (surprisingly clean) student flat, bestowed with the somewhat unsettling name 'The Love Shack'.
Hipkins chatted with ease with the students, in scenes the most relaxed he's appeared on the campaign trail so far.
At the student flat, when the flatmates suggested he kick back, he really did, reclining the chair and joking the media should leave. It was fun and jovial. He then handed out donuts and took one himself.
It's a contrast to the at times painfully stiff interactions he's had with some in the past, where he's sometimes appeared withholding and awkward.
It comes as frontline doctors continued to strike today over poor conditions. (Source: 1News)
Most notably so just five days ago, when he stood on a street corner half-heartedly waving a Labour sign for about seven minutes. They made for abysmal, miserable images. In contrast on the same day, Luxon was caught by TV cameras joshing with a kid in Tauranga and pedalling a bike attached to a smoothie machine.
At Polyfest in March, asked to give a chee-hoo, Hipkins refused, until deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni suggested a "group one". He then leaned away from the microphones and gave a shy attempt that barely registered.
Politicians don't have to be clowns, but if they don't want to look out of touch, they need to be game.
While politics is about policy, sometimes it's also about personality. Hipkins needed to show some, and he did today in Dunedin.
It's no surprise Hipkins felt at home with the students, given his time spent as a student politician. The tertiary sector provided his foundation as a politician.
But what is surprising is how chipper Hipkins is considering the clear trend in the polls to date. Tonight's 1News Verian poll shows a drubbing for the left — Labour, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori only come to 51 seats altogether under those numbers, 10 seats away from the 61 needed.
But the right bloc — National and ACT — is still, under this poll, just grasping power with its fingertips on a total 62 seats.
It's not a convincing trouncing, like it probably should be, given this election will be won and lost on the state of the economy.
Labour insiders reckon the real numbers fall with Labour closer to 30% and National further away from 40%. That may be wishful thinking, but it's true it won't take a lot of percentage point movement for different results.
But those points are a steep hill to climb — short of a free-donuts-for-all policy.
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