A MetService meteorologist has explained the worst case scenario for Auckland as Cyclone Gabrielle approaches Aotearoa.
Georgina Griffiths said this afternoon that Cyclone Gabrielle is currently "an intense, category three system over the Coral Sea".
"As it tracks south-eastwards out of the tropics, there does remain some uncertainty in how close it gets to Auckland next Monday and Tuesday," she said. "[Those] are the two days that Aucklanders should be preparing for now.
"Worst case scenario would be, it tracks pretty close and our impacts are quite large in magnitude."
Strong winds and heavy rains are expected from Sunday onwards, with warnings the storm could cause widespread damage. (Source: 1News)
The better scenario would see Gabrielle pass further east — but "even if it's further away, Auckland should expect impacts", Griffiths said.
"One, the region is pretty vulnerable right now to further rain and wind, but two, this system is a very, very deep low when it comes near and it's a large system, so even if it's further east or away from Auckland, we will still see impacts in the region."
The wind risk
"Wind is arguably the most important thing to note, Aucklanders," Griffiths said.
"Whilst it starts to get windy on Sunday and some of the watches are already issued... the most impactful wind event we see is later Monday and also through Tuesday," she explained.
"All of the region is at risk of impactful severe gales on Tuesday morning."
The already-saturated state of Auckland's land means wind is an increased risk to trees and powerlines, she added, urging Aucklanders to tie down their trampolines and clear out their yards.
The rainfall risk
"The second-most important variable we're concerned about with this event is of course rainfall," Griffiths said.
"It's Monday, Tuesday that we expect the bursts of heavy rain," she added, explaining those bursts could exacerbate existing slips.
"At this stage, we won't know which regions of Auckland are likely to see the most significant rain rates, the heaviest rain, until around Sunday... but be prepared, basically, for reasonable levels of rainfall.
"200-300mm for [Great] Barrier and north Auckland, 100-200mm of rain over the event elsewhere."
Coastal impacts
"Lastly, I'd like to talk about coastal impacts," Griffiths said, warning north of about Whangaparāoa could face "heavy, heavy swells".
"[And] if Cyclone Gabrielle comes west of Coromandel, so very close to Auckland, we do expect a storm surge into our eastern coastline.
"However, if the cyclone is further east, we should be OK from a coastal storm surge point of view here in Auckland.
"Just noting, other regions may not fare so well."
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