New National leader Christopher Luxon has delivered his party a bump in the polls, but seemingly at the expense of potential coalition partner ACT.
The results of the poll by David Farrar’s Curia for the Taxpayers’ Union finds that the centre-left bloc of Labour and the Greens would hold on to power if an election was held today.
The poll, conducted by telephone between December 1 and December 8, has Labour on 39.5 per cent party support (an increase of 0.2 percentage points since last month) and National at 32.6 per cent (an increase of 6.4 points).
The Greens are at 10.9 per cent (up 2.3 points) and ACT at 10.6 per cent (down 5.3 points).
Te Paati Māori is on 3 per cent (up 0.7 points) and NZ first at 2.3 per cent (up 0.6 points).
When translated into seats in Parliament, Labour would have 49 seats and the Greens would win 14. This gives them the majority, with 63 seats in total.
Luxon is second on the preferred Prime Minister ratings, at 20.4 per cent (up 16.3 points). Jacinda Ardern is at 39.1 per cent (up 5.1 points).
David Seymour is third for preferred Prime Minister, sitting at 5.6 per cent (down 4.9 points).
Luxon has a slightly higher net favourability than Ardern - the party leaders are at +15 per cent and +14 per cent respectively.
Net favourability is calculated by subtracting people who have unfavourable attitudes toward a politician from the people who have favourable attitudes.
When asked about the poll's results, Seymour said he wasn't too worried about National's increased support.
“Obviously you never want to see people move away from you. But, the main thing I'd say is it hasn't lessened the attraction of ACT or what we offer."
What was more worrying, he said, was that the gap between the centre-right and centre-left had grown. Seymour said that was something both ACT and National should address.
A 1News Colmar Brunton poll conducted in November showed Labour's support had dropped by 2 percentage points to 41 per cent, while National was at 28 per cent.
Curia's poll is the first conducted since former leader Judith Collins was ousted from her position.