Ardern, Labour dip in support, Collins plunges to lowest approval rating - 1News Colmar Brunton Poll

Source: 1News

Jacinda Ardern and her party have taken a hit in the latest 1News Colmar Brunton Poll, revealing a drop in Labour’s support to 41% and Ardern as preferred Prime Minister to 39%.

The November 1News Colmar Brunton Poll results.

National is still behind on 28%, rising two points since September's poll, the party's leader Judith Collins has plunged to a new low in her approval rating, of -31.

Party support:

Labour Party: 41% (down 2%-points)

National Party: 28% (up 2%)

ACT: 14% (steady)

Green Party: 9% (up 1%)

New Zealand First: 3% (steady)

Te Paati Māori: 1% (down 1%)

New Conservative: 1% (steady)

TOP: 1% (steady)

Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party: 1% (up 1%)

Don’t know: 7%

Refused: 2%

*Percentages do not add to 100 due to rounding.

It has been a tricky few weeks at the helm for Ardern, as Auckland surpasses 90 consecutive days in lockdown, Covid-19 case numbers ballooned and anti-vaccination protests were held around the country.

"There's no question that we as a Government, and personally, we've had to make tough decisions, but they have always been guided by wanting to do everything we can to protect people from Covid," Ardern told 1News.

Ardern thought Labour was "holding up well, and alongside traditional support partners holding a really strong ability to govern with a majority".

Labour has steadily declined in the last five 1News Colmar Brunton Polls since the 2020 election, where it on 53% in the December poll, now down to 41%.

National rose slightly today but has been stagnating between 25 and 29 since the election.

Collins said that it would take a while "for people to accept the Government sold them a pup", referring to the Covid-19 response.

November 2021 1News Colmar Brunton Poll results for minor parties.

ACT's support stayed steady on 14%, with leader David Seymour saying the "gap between left and right is closing faster than a languishing chain of DEKA stores in the 90s". Translated into seats in the House, that would see ACT with 18 seats.

Greens' Marama Davidson they were pleased with 9% result, but added they had work to do "to get our priorities for climate inequality and nature right out there".

Of her party's drop down to 1%, Te Paati Māori's Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said that election 2023 "will be the real telling of it all, we'll always be polled by whanau".

Judith Collins' approval rating

Judith Collins' approval rating plunged further to the National Party leader's worst result, sitting at -31, falling from -19 in May.

People are asked if they approve or disapprove of the way Judith Collins is handling her job as leader of the National Party.

Approval ratings are calculated by the number of people who approve of Collins' performance as National leader, minus the amount of people who disapprove.

Of those polled, 25% approved and 57% disapproved – giving Collins an approve rating of -31.

In May, Collins was on -19, in November 2020 she got +9, and when she took over as leader she got +27 in July 2020.

Collins said she thought people liked her when they know her.

"Nobody likes to be told that what they voted for last year turned out to be an image rather than real policies."

Of National voters polled, less than half approved of how she was handling her job at 47%, while 38% disapproved (giving her a nett approval rating with National voters of +9, a drop from +34 in May this year).

In comparison, previous National leaders Todd Muller received +10 in June 2020 and Simon Bridges was on -40 in May the same year.

November 2021 1News Colmar Brunton Poll results — preferred Prime Minister.

Preferred PM:

Jacinda Ardern: 39% (down 5%-points)

David Seymour: 11% (steady)

Judith Collins: 5% (steady)

Christopher Luxon: 4% (up 1%)

Chlöe Swarbrick: 2% (up 1%)

Simon Bridges: 1% (down 1%)

Winston Peters: 1% (steady)

Don’t know: 26% (up 5%)

Refused: 2% (down 1%)

Ardern dropped down by 5%-points.

She said despite the drop, there was still "confidence in the Government, confidence in our ability to continue to manage what has been a very tough period for New Zealand as we transition (of managing Covid), but we are also looking to the future with confidence."

"This role, with it comes the responsibility and the job to make hard decisions."

Collins said her result was "enviable when you're at a stage when you've had one year out of an election which was an overwhelming victory for the Government".

"It's always going to be a tough haul."

It is the second poll Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick has reached 2%, with her co-leader Marama Davidson saying it was "awesome for our party she's able to use her humongous platform to get our Green platform out there".

1News asked for an interview today with Swarbrick on her result. While Swarbrick was keen, their media team declined the request, later offering up their co-leader. When asked, Davidson was not aware of the request.

November 2021 1News Colmar Brunton Poll results — seats in Parliament.

Parliamentary seats entitlement based on poll results:

Labour Party: 53

National Party: 36

ACT Party: 18

Green Party: 12

Māori Party: 1

The Parliament seat entitlement method assumes Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

Between November 6-10, 2021, 1001 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For party support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.