How a Greens' Māori seat win could hurt the left's chances of governing

With Te Pāti Māori’s overhang seats crucial to the left bloc’s numbers, a potential Green Party win in Te Tai Tokerau could hurt their chances of changing the government.

It was touted as the seat to watch of all the Māori seats, and now, after election night results, it’s become a major player in the overall efforts for the left.

With only 436 votes between Te Pāti Māori’s Aperahama Edwards, who is currently leading on 8484, and Green Party’s Hūhana Lyndon at 8048, special votes have now come into play.

As it stands, Te Pāti Māori has won five seats - four of them are part of an overall overhang of 11. The other seven are on the right with National. If the Greens were to take the seat, Te Pāti Māori would go down to four in total but the Greens would not go up due to the size of their party vote.

Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson told Breakfast this morning that they still wanted to win the seat and the circumstance that has unfolded was not Lyndon’s fault.

“I get that we have to look at the bigger picture, but I’ve got to be clear about Hūhana. She has been working and building connections and relationships in Te Tai Tokerau long before she became MP.”

Co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said it was “an upside-down election”.

“We can see that any number of variables skew things in different places,” she said.

Swarbrick says the focus on strategic voting this election was “very cynical and very attack ad-y”, and blamed it for leaving “a bit of a sour taste in people’s mouths”.

Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi told TVNZ's Marae that Labour leader Chris Hipkins would have woken up as prime minister if neither his party nor the Greens contested the Māori seats.

"The strategy was clear: Te Pati Māori delivered five of the overhang seats," he said.

"I'm really proud of our promise to our people to deliver those overhang seats, and my thing is that now we've got to wait for the specials.

"But if Labour and the Greens had given the seven Māori seats to Te Pāti Māori, Chris Hipkins would have woken up Prime Minister this morning, and the numbers are telling you that."

Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said her party's strategy of encouraging voters to give them only their electorate vote was "extremely successful".

"We have made it transparent what we were out there to do with our strategy, and we needed Labour to pull their weight and lift it up. So it's still too early to tell. Showed the maturity and the intelligence of our people, of our voters."

Political commentators Lara Greaves and Roihana Nuri appeared on Marae to discuss the results from each of the seven Māori seats.

A pre-election poll from Whakaata Māori-Curia had Lyndon ahead of the pack, with Edwards trailing in third. Now he's currently the MP-elect.

Nuri said Edwards should be commended on his campaign.

“No poll, nowhere in the history of this world, had him winning and I think that’s the mobilisation on the ground to bring back those branches after the push split with Mariameno Kapa-Kingi – whichever way that went – and no one had him winning.”

Greaves said she thought Lyndon would have done it in the end but that’s how the strategy played out.

“Māori voters are strategic. That’s the strategy there, right? That’s the one that makes sense in terms of creating the overhang. People were listening to Te Pāti Māori strategy.”

Oriini Kaipara stomped home in Tāmaki Makaurau with 13,505 votes - 54% of the total.

Greaves said it was a decisive win. “Now she’s got three years to settle into her role.”

Nuri said in hindsight, perhaps Labour would have been better served by Nathaniel Howe, candidate number 71 on the list who lost out to Kerrin Leoni for the party’s mandate to stand in the seat.

“I think that they really need to start campaigning for the Māori electorates now, or come up with the strategies now, over a three-year period rather than just sort of making decisions on the fly and on the ad hoc.”

Te Pāti Māori's Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke won the Hauraki-Waikato seat in a landslide of more than 10,000 votes against Labour’s Kingi Kiriona.

Nuri said her win was unsurprising and she should be rewarded for her efforts.

"Te Pati Māori will need to have their caucus, sit down over the next two weeks, and figure out what the roles are, given the mandates that were issued by the electorates."

Greaves said Maipi-Clarke had become one of Te Pati Māori's "stars".

"It's really time for her to make her mark and figure out what her policy goals are."

Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi has defended his seat, receiving 13,080 votes to win the electorate. The Green Party’s Tania Waikato came in second with 10,806 but will get into Parliament on the party's list.

Nuri cashed in an ‘I told you so’ cheque, saying he called the margin would be in the 3000 on Marae a few weeks back.

He said Waikato performed “way better” than was expected.

“She’s going to line dance, kanikani all the way to Pāremata and add to that Green Party.”

The Labour Party’s Cushla Tangaere-Manuel defended her seat against second place Te Pāti Māori’s Haley Maxwell – 12,135 votes to 9,003.

“Ultimately, Cushla has locked that seat in,” said Greaves, “and if she keeps doing what she’s doing, I feel like that’s probably becoming relatively safe for her.”

Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is returning to Parliament as the MP for the electorate with 14,677, to Labour’s Te Pūoho Kātene 10,836.

However, Greaves said this time around voters have “to some extent punished” the leaders of the party by eating into their “huge” leads in 2023 where Waititi won with a whopping 21,500 votes and Ngarewa-Packer received 16,288.

“We wouldn’t expect that those big gaps to close that much, and it does seem to be a little like the voters know …that they need to take Te Pāti Māori to Parliament, strategically, but that gap closing is a bit of a punishment.”

Labour Party’s Mananui Ramsden is one of the new MPs in Parliament today. He won the seat with 8,614 votes, with the Greens’ Dr Lisa Te Morenga coming in second with 5,841 votes.

Nuri said the result isn’t a surprise considering how well-known Ramsden is in the electorate.

He said Labour had the potential to replicate the success across the rest of the Māori seats with the calibre of candidates they had to choose from, but they’ve gotten “right off centre”.