A constitutional law expert is not convinced a billionaire's vote-splitting campaign is behind National's historic election seat overhang.
By Mary Argue of RNZ
On the preliminary results, the typical 120-seat Parliament is looking to swell by 11 MPs, with both National and Te Pāti Māori winning more electorate seats than their party vote entitles them to.
Willis, Bishop, Goldsmith and Brownlee are among National's senior MPs facing the exit, leaving Luxon mourning the loss of political heavyweights while welcoming a new generation into the caucus. (Source: 1News)
National has an extra seven "overhang" MPs, while Te Pāti Māori has an extra four after campaigning on an overhang strategy, asking supporters for their candidate vote, but to vote Green or Labour for the party.
Businessman Harry Mowbray also told National supporters to give their electorate vote to National but their party vote to ACT or NZ First.
But lawyer Graeme Edgeler is questioning what has happened and said there was a reasonable chance the overhang came about organically.
Hipkins' supporters aren't giving up yet, with tight electorate races and the Special Votes still to come. (Source: 1News)
"Was this something that was artificially caused? Or was it just because, well, both National and Labour were very unpopular going into this election?
"And because of that, when major parties are highly unpopular, this is a risk. This is something that can happen."
He said the Electoral Commission's split-vote analysis would shed more light on what happened and why, but speculated that if the two main parties turned around slumping support, the extent of the overhang could be a one-off.
"Three or six years' time, if the major parties sort of pick up some support from their smaller parties, it might not happen or might not happen to the same extent in the future."
Qiulae Wong is preparing to lead at least seven MPs into Parliament, none of whom has served before. (Source: 1News)
He said the result was not "a mockery of a MMP", but said it should prompt another review of the MMP electoral system if a repeat looked likely.
"If it looks like it might actually affect the result of who can govern, then there are going to be incentives in play to other parties to try things like this."
Edgeler said countries had dealt with the overhang problem in different ways, such as only giving one vote, which elects the local MP, but is also the party vote.
Germany "balanced" the overhang by giving parties extra MPs for years until it became too unwieldy, he said, and now give MPs seats in parliament based on the party vote.
"You've got party votes for two MPs. You're getting two MPs, even though you won five electorates. And that's perhaps an extreme thing."
With Winston Peters staying tight-lipped, Shane Jones signalling flexibility and David Seymour questioning Opportunity's place on the right, coalition manoeuvring is under way ahead of the Special Votes. (Source: 1News)
The way Parliament operated could also change, Edgeler said, such as limiting voting rights on bills to the party vote, rather than giving a vote to each MP.
Under that scenario, and based on current results, National would get 35 votes rather than 42, while Te Pāti Māori would have one vote as opposed to five.
Edgeler said any rule changes would have to signalled well in advance.
"We voted under this election with the rules we have. And so for the next three years, that'll be what we're looking at.
"But beyond that, [it's] certainly something we should review."
He said all the international solutions could be all be on the table. "We could look at all of them and see which one works out for New Zealand."
The party is on track to take five of the seven Māori electorates, but Labour has denied it a clean sweep, holding Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and flipping Te Tai Tonga as the Special Votes loom. (Source: 1News)
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