Parliament is about to need more chairs, as National and Te Pāti Māori’s electorate wins outstrip their party votes, blowing the House out to a whopping 129 or 130 seats by current estimates.
That's the largest in New Zealand’s history - and up to ten more than the standard 120 MPs. At a basic annual salary of $180,000 for a backbench MP, that's an extra $1.8 million for starters.
With most of the vote counted, the overhang far outstretched the previous record of 123 MPs elected in 2023.
National looks set for about 41 electorates, more than its 29% vote would usually give it.
Te Pāti Māori looks set for 5 MPs, far beyond what its current 0.6% vote would entitle it to.
In both cases, that means more seats in Parliament.
However, these numbers won't be finalised until special votes are counted and the final results are released on November 27.
Two ticks and a top-up
Under MMP you get two ticks. Your party vote decides how Parliament’s 120 seats are split between parties. Electorate winners take their party’s seats first, and list MPs top each party up to its share.
That works until a party wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to. Nobody gets kicked out to make room. The party keeps every electorate MP, the House adds extra seats to fit them, and those extra seats are the overhang.
The extra seats also raise the number needed to govern. In a 120-seat Parliament, a party or bloc needs 61 seats for a majority.
On the numbers with 90% of votes counted last night Parliament would have 130 MPs. National, ACT and NZ First had 67 seats between them - enough to form a government. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori had 56, and Opportunity would add another 7. Not enough to make it.
Labour's Chris Hipkins says turnout will decide the November 7th vote, while National's Christopher Luxon urged supporters not to split their vote. (Source: 1News)
Splitting the vote
Voters on both the left and the right were urged to split their two ticks this election, in the hope of manufacturing an overhang for their side.
Te Pāti Māori campaigned openly for it. Last month the party named a one-person party list and asked supporters to give it their electorate vote and give their party vote to the Greens or Labour.
Tāmaki Makaurau candidate Oriini Kaipara spelled out the plan in a 1News debate in October.
“We want one-tick, candidate vote, for the person that we’ve put up as Te Pāti Māori in each of the seven Māori electorates,” she said.
On the right, former National and ACT leader Don Brash wrote a newspaper advertisement, placed by Reality Check Radio, urging right-leaning voters to give their party vote to someone other than National. The aim was for National to win as many electorates as possible while ACT and NZ First picked up the party votes. ACT and NZ First both signed off on the ad.
That split the coalition. National leader Christopher Luxon said he was disappointed his partners had backed the campaign, with his party also complaining to the Electoral Commission about a second vote-splitting campaign run by a businessman.
Overhangs are nothing new, but they have usually been small. An overhang has occurred in five of the 10 MMP elections, typically adding one or two seats. In 2023, Te Pāti Māori won two more electorates than its party vote entitled it to, with a National win in the Port Waikato by-election adding a third seat.
These numbers could still change. Special votes can flip close electorates, and every flip changes the size of the House. In 2023, Te Pāti Māori had four seats on election night and six once all the votes were counted. The Electoral Commission is due to release official results on November 27.
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