Election night winners and losers: The overhang hangover

A record minor-party vote, a Parliament swollen by an overhang and no clear government for many more weeks - election night has delivered much drama for political tragics but few clear answers on winners and losers. Here's what we know so far.

National and Labour are effectively locked in a dead heat on the party vote, while the Greens and ACT posted record results and Opportunity crossed the threshold for the first time. Some of National’s biggest names, meanwhile, look set to lose their seats.

Here are the winners and losers of election night - as far as we can tell at this stage.

This is one of the strangest yet also nail-biting elections we've had in some time here in New Zealand. This is because of the overhang and multiple tight local electorate contests, alongside simply how close the left and right blocs are.

This means the biggest winners and losers of the night are almost certainly unknown until we get the final results, which includes special votes and aren't released until November 27.

This includes whoever gets to form a government and which senior National list MPs, such as Nicola Willis or Chris Bishop, might be out of Parliament.

That brings us to our first loser - and it could be you.

If you went to bed on Saturday night hoping to wake up knowing who would run the country, you're in for a shocker of a Sunday morning.

It's almost certain the final make-up of Parliament will need to wait until November 27 when the official results are declared. That means a further wait until formal coalition negotiations and a long wait until we know the next government.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins made that clear when he took the stage in Upper Hutt.

“As things stand tonight, it’s clear that we’re not going to know the exact shape of our next government for a little while longer yet,” Hipkins told supporters.

“Our next Parliament is going to require all of us to compromise, to work together, and to find common ground.”

ACT leader David Seymour warned supporters the final result “may not be known until the final count is released in three Fridays’ time”.

NZ First leader Winston Peters urged supporters to hold back from “hopeful speculation”.

“As with all good decision-making you first of all need to know all the facts,” Peters said.

On TVNZ's election panel, former Labour leader Andrew Little predicted at the start of the night that this would be “the longest caretaker government ever”.

In only about half a year, the Opportunity Party - formerly TOP - has gone from being the butt of jokes for some political trainwatchers to a historic result in this year's election.

At 6% its place in Parliament seems secure.

Under the leadership of Qiulae Wong, Opportunity has made history as the first new minor party under MMP to successfully enter Parliament on the 5% threshold.

She was close to tears and, by her own admission, “trying really hard not to swear” as she took the stage in front of supporters at Eden Park on Saturday night.

“Shit, we did it!” she said.

“It is looking very likely that after a decade, the Opportunity Party is going to make history tonight,” she said. “You have voted for unity over division. You have voted to change New Zealand politics for good.”

While Wong hasn't won her longshot attempt at winning the Auckland seat of Mt Albert, she has won a longshot attempt to get her party into Parliament - a feat unaccomplished by three party leaders over three general elections before her.

It remains unclear whether it will be in a kingmaker position given the tight position of races. However, having MPs and being in Parliament will leave the party stoked.

If Opportunity had one of the best nights of anyone, National arguably had the worst. But it's also one which sees it potentially on the cusp of forming another government.

The party’s vote fell from 38% in 2023 to around 29%, and at points during the night Labour edged ahead of it on the party vote. National is still projected to have many seats in Parliament, but only because it leads in so many electorates.

That leaves no room for list MPs, which puts some of the party’s biggest names out of Parliament. National deputy leader Nicola Willis told 1News it was “looking very unlikely” she would return to Parliament.

“The thing that’s always mattered most to me is that National can form a government and can keep governing the country,” Willis said.

“On the other hand, of course, it is looking very unlikely that I will be returning to Parliament, so that does come with some disappointment.”

Speaker Gerry Brownlee, an MP since 1996, said it “certainly doesn’t look like” he would be back. He said he now had his eye on retirement and had “no regrets whatsoever”.

Senior minister, third on National's list, Chris Bishop was trailing Labour’s Ginny Andersen in Hutt South, and Paul Goldsmith was behind ACT leader David Seymour in Epsom.

National MP Mark Mitchell also refused to rule out talks with Opportunity, a party Luxon repeatedly ruled out working with during the campaign.

National’s slide is also part of a bigger story this election, which is how the major parties as a whole fared against the minors.

Minor vs major parties are a huge story this election and the decline of the two biggies - National and Labour - was foreshadowed by the polls and confirmed by the results.

Labour has risen but only by around two points from its "shattering" defeat in 2023.

Meanwhile the minor parties are all on the up.

The Greens are at 14% - a record result, and up from 12% last time.

ACT is at 11% - a record result, up from 9%.

NZ First is at 10% - up from 6%.

There's a consistent theme here and it's record-highs for most of the minor parties, who will all be chuffed with having more MPs and more leverage if they're negotiating. Te Pāti Māori will also be pleased at its performance given turmoil in the past year.

It held onto the seats it had in its caucus previously and also appeared in a close race to win Te Tai Tokerau with a 1-2% gap between it and Greens candidate Huhana Lyndon.

Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Tākuta Ferris' departure from Te Pāti Māori last year came amid internal infighting and ended in a messy court battle.

Both split off with Kapa-Kingi forming her own party, Te Tai Tokerau Party, hoping to hold onto their constituents, but it appears those efforts have failed.

In Te Tai Tokerau, the incumbent is trailing in fourth behind a three-way race between candidates from Te Pāti Māori, the Greens, and Labour.

Meanwhile, Ferris is also trailing candidates from those parties in Te Tai Tonga.

Election night certainly delivered for one group - politics nerds, as the preliminary results threw up nearly every quirk MMP has.

Projections through the night put Parliament at 129 to 131 seats, the largest under MMP, because National and TPM are winning more electorates than its party vote entitles it to.

TVNZ election night panellist Guyon Espiner had dubbed it “the overhang election”.

Meanwhile, right electorates have been bouncing between National and Labour candidates and sometimes with leads as slim as a singular vote.

Those margins in electorate races matter much more than usual since National’s overhang-dependent majority depends on its electorate wins.

And the fun is far from over given special votes, possible recounts and the official count mean the nerds' spreadsheets will stay firmly open.

The pollsters will also be pleased with themselves with most of the polls in the final weeks correctly pointing to a dead heat, and Opportunity above 5%.