Cost of living pressures are the biggest concern of this election – but most Kiwis aren’t convinced that even their preferred government will make things easier.
New Vote Compass findings show only 35% of respondents believe rising costs are likely to ease if the party or parties they most want in power form the next government.
Almost as many – 33% – think relief is unlikely.
Another 28% consider it neither likely nor unlikely, while 5% don’t know.
The result suggests a wide lack of confidence that the election will deliver meaningful financial relief, regardless of who wins on Saturday.
Find out where you stand with Vote Compass
The results didn’t measure confidence in one party acting alone, nor did they identify which party voters trust most on the cost of living.
Instead, people were asked to imagine their preferred election outcome (including any coalition) and assess whether they thought it would improve the situation.
Even under that preferred scenario, fewer than half of the voters intending to support most parties think cost pressures are likely to ease.
Likely: 35%
Unlikely: 33%
Neither likely nor unlikely: 28%
Don’t know: 5%
National voters split almost perfectly
Among people intending to vote National, opinion is almost evenly divided.
About 34% believe cost of living pressures are likely to ease under their preferred government.
The same proportion consider it unlikely, while 30% sit in the middle.
ACT voters are slightly more hopeful, with 36% expecting relief, compared with 33% who consider it unlikely.
The picture is more pessimistic among the current Government’s other coalition partner.
Only 26% of NZ First voters think the pressures are likely to ease if their side wins. About 38% consider that unlikely and 34% are neutral.
Green voters the exception
Green voters show the greatest confidence in their preferred government.
Around 56% believe cost of living pressures are likely to ease if a coalition featuring their party makes up the next government. That's the only group in which a majority considers relief likely.
Among Labour voters, 43% think pressures are likely to ease with their party in charge, compared with 28% who say it is unlikely.
Opportunity voters are among the least confident. Their party could play a part in either a left or right bloc coalition, but just 27% of their supporters expect relief, while 40% consider it unlikely.
The Te Pāti Māori supporter sample was not large enough to be statistically valid.
Undecided voters even less convinced
The bleakest result comes from voters who remain undecided.
Only 18% of them think cost of living pressures are likely to ease under the government they would most like to see formed.
Around 41% consider relief unlikely, 30% are neutral and 12% don’t know.
That uncertainty matters in a close election, with those voters still assessing which party – or combination of parties – they believe is most capable of improving their lives.
Younger voters more optimistic
There is also a generational difference.
Among those aged 18–29, 44% believe cost of living pressures are likely to ease under their preferred government.
That falls to 34% among people in their 30s, 31% among those in their 40s and 32% among both the 50–64 and 65-plus groups.
Younger respondents are also more uncertain, with 11% answering “don’t know”.
Participants reporting Māori ancestry are more optimistic than those reporting other ancestry: 45% consider relief likely, compared with 33%.
The issue defining the election
The finding comes after earlier Vote Compass analysis identified the cost of living as New Zealanders’ single biggest election concern.
Combined with the economy, it accounted for almost half of the issues respondents considered most important.
The cost of living also topped the list among both younger and older voters, despite the two groups differing sharply on several of their other priorities.
Now, just two days from election day, the latest findings suggest identifying the problem has been easier than convincing voters it will be fixed.
With just three days of voting left, see where your views line up with the parties' policies at 1News.co.nz/VoteCompass
Methodology
Results are based on 28,649 Vote Compass respondents between October 26 and 30, 2026. The data were weighted to align the sample with New Zealand’s adult population by sex, age, ethnicity, education and past voting record. Vote Compass uses a self-selected, non-probability sample, so a conventional margin of error does not apply. The modelled error estimate for a percentage in the overall sample is plus or minus 0.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Subgroup results carry greater uncertainty. All percentages include “don’t know” responses and may not total 100% because of rounding.
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