With all eyes on the New Zealand election on November 7, it's easy to miss that Americans will also vote next week in a high-stakes election that could reshape Donald Trump's final two years in office.
The US midterm elections are on Wednesday (NZT) and will be crucial in shaping the future of the world's superpower.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and more than a third of Senate seats are up for grabs, along with countless races for positions within each state.
The election comes two years into President Donald Trump's second term, and while he may not be on the ballot, the results will have a huge impact on his remaining time in office.
So what's likely to happen? And what could a win or loss mean for Trump?
'High stakes' for Trump
Dr Timothy Fadgen, a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Auckland, explained that this year's election was "high stakes" for both sides, and things were looking shaky for Trump and the Republicans.
Trump has been campaigning hard throughout the midterm cycle, holding rallies in states where Republican control is on a knife edge. He's even promised to give US$5000 to voters if Republicans win.
"The Republicans currently have a very, very thin margin," Fadgen told 1News. "But all models have sort of suggested that they're bound to lose this time around.
"The question now, everybody seems to be looking at, is the magnitude of the defeat, or the victory for the Democrats, depending on which side you're on."
An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released on Wednesday showed Democrats with an advantage in controlling the House. Republicans were initially tipped to keep control of the Senate – that's now also being contested.
Losing control of the legislative branch would be a big blow for Trump and limit what he can do for the next two years.
"Control of the House, if it goes to the Democrats, would immediately allow them to introduce legislation that would be their policy priorities, which may be important to set the agenda for the next two years," Fadgen said.
"It's unlikely, of course, that President Trump would embrace those things, but at least they have the ability to meaningfully speak up."
If they win, Democrats would have more oversight of the executive and could steer the country's budget, hold hearings, and call executive officials to testify.
The Democrats winning the Senate would be a bigger blow for Trump. They need 51 seats to secure a majority and nullify Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote.
They could confirm senior executive appointees to Trump's cabinet and confirm or reject Supreme Court nominees.
"The stakes for Trump are probably a bit higher personally to maintain control than they are policy-wise for the Republicans," Fadgen said.
Costs, war, and corruption - the key issues for voters
Fadgen said a set of "closely related" issues were front and centre for voters – inflation and fuel prices, the Iran war, and corruption.
On Iran, he said: "America has been involved in overseas wars in the Middle East since 2001. Trump ran on a platform in his first term, and now, on not getting America engaged in these foreign wars.
"People are aware that it is not good, but the fact that it has impacted gas prices so much just makes it a very tangible issue."
Over the last two years, Democrats have scrutinised Trump over several scandals, including the President's involvement in crypto ventures, accepting a $400 million jet gifted by Qatar, and pardons that have benefited his political allies.
Trump has also faced criticism for his administration's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files and his own historical ties to the convicted child sex offender.
"There's been no accountability so far," Fadgen said. "There's been a couple of resignations from the administration for relatively low-hanging fruit, so to speak, not very central figures.
"I just think that the public, when you take all those factors together, they look at an administration, a president and a president's family that's becoming enriched many, many times over, whilst the wages and wealth of the public have declined precipitously."
He believed this year's election could be perceived as a referendum on Trump and the Republicans generally.
"We were promised no wars, we got a war. We were promised lower costs, we got higher costs. They talked about high fuel prices for years, and lo and behold, the fuel prices are higher than ever.
"You just can't make specific promises like that and then deliver the opposite and expect no voter repercussion at all."
He said the Democrats' campaign focus on Trump showed this. Despite suffering big losses in 2024, they are still ahead.
"If you look at the individual campaigns and you look at the campaign ad content, it is focused primarily on all the negatives to do with Trump and the 'Hey, we're not Trump' and 'Hey, we can stop Trump'.
"There is not a clear value proposition in many cases. Not something that inspires people. It's more like tinkering around the status quo.
"So, if you look at it as a voter, the only way we can possibly stop any of these things that we don't agree with is to put the opposition in because the party that's in is unwilling to stand up to him."
He also said the House Republicans had become dysfunctional over the last two years and struggled to put their plans into action.
"They passed the Big Beautiful Bill, which I guess was one legislative accomplishment, but otherwise it's been sort of in infighting.
"I think the people would be looking at it and saying, 'OK, can we make a referendum on the house? Yes, we're not happy with how things went, and we want to change.'"
The key races to watch
The race for Michigan's Senate seat, contested by Democrat challenger Abdul El-Sayed and Republican incumbent Mike Rogers, is among the most talked about.
Michigan voted for Trump in the 2024 election and was one of the states Republicans hoped to keep under control.
The progressive El-Sayed's victory in the primaries sent shockwaves through the Democratic establishment, as he decisively beat his more moderate rivals. According to FiftyPlusOne, El-Sayed holds a 3% lead over Rogers at 48.4%.
Another race to watch is for the South Carolina Senate seat left vacant by longtime Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who passed away in July. His sister Darline Graham was appointed to hold the seat and is fighting to keep it from Democrat challenger Annie Andrews.
South Carolina is generally considered a Republican stronghold, but Andrews has narrowed the gap with her rival, with recent polls putting them neck and neck.
In Maine, the state's 30-year Republican Senator Susan Collins is being challenged by Troy Jackson – who most polls suggest will win. Fadgen said it might not be as clear-cut, however.
"Everybody seems to always want or think they have Susan Collins in their grasp, and she always seems to find a way to win," he said.
In Texas, Republicans have spent more than $200 million to help Ken Paxton stop James Talarico from becoming the first Democrat to win a statewide election since 1994. Talarico is currently ahead in most polls.
What will the results mean for New Zealand?
While New Zealand's relationship with the US is largely through the executive, Fadgen said changes are possible.
One is Trump's 12.5% tariff imposed on New Zealand.
"There was some congressional support for tariffs, not much. There will be almost none now.
"The courts found the pretext the Trump administration has used for these new sets of tariffs is baseless in most cases."
Another is the war with Iran potentially cooling down, but Fadgen said the results of Israel's election would play a bigger part here.
"I do think Trump would love to negotiate some way to get out of it because he knows it's a loser. But again, he's proven himself to be difficult to pin down or put into a box."
Follow live coverage of the US midterms on 1News.co.nz as the results come in on Wednesday afternoon.
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