Analysis: The 15 seats that will decide this election

Strap yourselves in, this is the closest election in a generation, writes 1News Politics Producer Tom Day.

Tonight's 1News Verian poll result shows it's a nail biter, with the right bloc sitting on 61 seats and the left bloc on 56. Opportunity, on these numbers, appears to remain the Kingmaker holding the keys to power.

But that may not actually be the case. Last week I wrote about how this election could be decided as a result of the overhang either for the left or the right.

And, on tonight’s results, it's almost certain the right bloc will create an overhang - where a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote allocation leading to extra MPs.

Crunch time: New 1News Verian poll reveals two paths to power - Watch on TVNZ+

That means the outcome of this election could come down to the seats National can hold or even, in the odd case, win.

Our results show National having 34 MPs, that's a reduction of 10 on their current allocation.

That would mean they would need to lose 10 electorate seats in order to avoid an overhang.

Even if they were to lose eight seats that would be enough for them to form government with 63 MPs, including their own overhang of two seats.

But it would leave National without some of its top talent in Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, Gerry Brownlee and Chris Bishop if he loses his seat.

So, given this backdrop, these are crucial seats which could decide this election.

Here are the top 15:

Likely at the top of the Labour target board is Banks Peninsula. An unlikely win for National at the last election, it's the party's most marginal seat.

They won it by 396 votes. It's currently held by Vanessa Weenink, but she was the first National MP to win the seat since 1996 (for a period of time it was called Port Hills).

She's again up against Tracey McLellan, one of Labour's consistent working MPs.

It's a seat Labour can't afford not to flip.

Waitākere is one of this election's new seats. It incorporates parts of New Lynn and Kelston following a set of boundary changes.

New Lynn at the 2023 election was surprisingly won by National's Paulo Garcia, but he is standing down after a term.

In his place is Agnes Loheni, who has previously been a list MP for the party.

She's up against Labour's Vanushi Walters - one the party's star risers this campaign, vaulting up their list and picking up the foreign affairs spokesperson's role.

The boundary changes in this electorate favour Labour and, with the drop in National's support, like Banks Peninsula, this is an electorate Labour has to win.

This could be the most interesting race of election night.

Senior National minister Chris Bishop's future is on the line. He enters the race against Labour's Ginny Andersen with a majority of just 1332.

Bishop himself conceded earlier this year that he is "highly unlikely" to win the seat. But that "highly unlikely" chance of victory might be Bishop's only way back to Parliament.

On tonight's results, he either needs to win his seat or National needs to lose 12 seats for him to get back in on the list. Put simply, that's a tall order.

Every seat that National wins is one that potentially adds to an overhang.

But Labour will hope the momentum of National's drop will be enough to flip Bishop voters to Andersen in order to give Labour another win.

When Carlos Cheung entered Shed 10 on election night in 2023, he was met by loud chants of his name by Young Nats.

Such was the extent of Labour's collapse at the election, National had gone into their heartland of Mount Roskill and had knocked one off.

It sent Michael Wood out of Parliament, just months after he'd been ousted as a Labour minister.

This election Wood is back and after redemption. He's gone candidate only, hoping to convince Mount Roskill voters he's worth a second chance.

An electorate poll commissioned by Wood's campaign, for what it's worth, suggested a clear lead for Wood over Cheung.

If Labour wants to return to power, Mount Roskill must be a seat that it regains.

Wairarapa is one of the key races to watch.

Currently held by National's new minister Mike Butterick, he's defending a tight majority of 2816 against Labour's campaign chair Kieran McAnulty.

McAnulty was able to flip the seat red in 2020. Prior to that, the last Labour MP to win the seat was Georgina Beyer back in 2002.

So why is the seat in play?

Basically, McAnulty is more popular than his party. While he lost the seat last time, the party vote gap percentage was more than 5000 votes.

With National's support likely to fall, so will Butterick's.

There's the added element of former NZ First MP Ron Mark standing. He's likely to get some votes, but where they will come from is unknown.

This is far from being a likely Labour flip, but it is part of a collection of seats where Labour needs to win a good handful to prevent the overhang on the right.

Another of the toss ups.

The margin in East Cape is 3199 and the seat is held by Dana Kirkpatrick.

Labour is running Jo Luxton, one of the party's more rural-focused MPs. She moved into the electorate during this term.

Like Wairarapa it's going to be close, but it's a seat Labour may need to win if its going to have a successful night.

On paper this shouldn't be a contest. National's Tim Costley is defending a majority of 6271 from the previous Ōtaki electorate, but dig into the weeds and you'll see why Labour very much believes the seat is in play.

Major boundary changes, which include bringing in parts of the previously very red Mana electorate, mean this race will be a nail biter.

Labour is running Sophie Handford, who the party sees as a rising star, as its candidate.

She was previously a district councillor in the area and led the school strike for climate movement. However, she's up against Costley, one of National's most charismatic MPs, who has built a strong reputation over prosecuting FENZ officials.

If Labour wins the seat, they are potentially on for a good night.

Takanini is held by a mega majority of 8775 for National's Rima Nakhle.

But, like Kapiti, Takanini's boundary changes have been favourable for the left.

While Nakhle is well liked within National, she'll need more than that to hold the seat. She's losing some of National's strongest supporting areas to Christopher Luxon in Botany.

Takanini would certainly be an outside chance for Labour and its candidate Kharag Singh, but it should be a tighter race than last time.

This is National's third most vulnerable seat. National's Maureen Pugh beat Labour's Damien O'Connor by just over 1000 votes at the last election.

Neither candidate is there this time.

National is fielding a high profile candidate in former Federated Farmers President Katie Milne, while Labour is fielding teacher Rory Paterson.

Milne's popularity may mean that National has the potential to hold the seat against the grain.

It's certainly in play for Labour, but not to the extent of, for example, the West Auckland seats above.

National's Ryan Hamilton is defending a majority of just over 5000 votes.

He's up again against Labour's Georgie Dansey, who's been building her profile since getting into Parliament earlier this year via the list.

This race is another line call.

It's the kind of seat that could decide whether or not National gets an overhang.

A hold for Hamilton would be a sign of a solid evening for National.

Much of the above is about what National could lose, but there's also a couple of seats in play for them to win.

Ask someone six years ago if the National Party ever had a chance of winning the Mount Albert seat, they probably would have laughed.

But at the last election that all changed.

Labour fielded Helen White, an inexperienced candidate compared to the likes of Jacinda Ardern and Helen Clark before her.

And it showed. Her candidate supported collapsed, meaning she only won the seat by 20 votes to National's Melissa Lee, the second tightest in the country.

The tight result was also impacted by the Greens Ricardo Menendez March taking away large amounts of votes from the left.

Menendez March is running again this time. But there's now a fourth element.

Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong is also running in the seat. She has the potential to pull votes from both the right and left, but probably more from the left.

With the potential for the vote to be split three ways across the left, Lee has the potential to pull off an unlikely upset and come through to win.

Electorate polling appears to show the seat's in the "very tight" category.

An unlikely win for National could add to its potential overhang tally.

Another fascinating race, Tāmaki was one of the stories of the last election when then ACT deputy leader Brooke van Velden stormed to a comprehensive victory over National's Simon O'Connor.

It was one of the few dark spots in National's evening.

But neither candidate from last time is standing.

ACT are fielding former National candidate James Christmas, pumping heavy amounts of resource into his campaign in order for him to try and hold the seat.

But make no mistake, National wants it back. Mahesh Muralidhar, who helps out startup firms, is the party's candidate. He ran in Auckland Central last time so has experience working on the ground and is likely to give Christmas a good run.

But Labour would say don't count out their candidate.

High profile lawyer Max Harris has worked on political campaigns before, including Efeso Collins' mayoral run.

It would be a very uphill fight for him to win the seat, but with Christmas and Muralidhar likely to split the right's vote, Harris will be hoping there's some form of path to victory.

It's very rare to get a full blown four-way contest, but Te Tai Tokerau is it.

The battle of the north has the potential to create a variety of different factors depending on who wins.

So who's the front runner?

Well, some electorate polling has indicated it's the Greens' Hūhana Lyndon.

Lyndon has spent a lot of time on the ground at hui and the Greens will be hoping that could lead to their first ever win in a Māori electorate.

But Labour is fielding one of their high ranked candidates too.

Willow-Jean Prime has swapped out running in the general seats for Te Tai Tokerau.

Her profile is likely to garner support.

Te Pāti Māori meanwhile is already making the case that Lyndon and Prime will be elected via their party's lists.

They're standing Aperahama Edwards, the current chair of the Ngātiwai Trust Board and a well respected leader with many a speech on the paepae.

The incumbent would also say don't rule her out.

Mariameno Kapa-Kingi was famously ousted from Te Pāti Māori and subsequently set up the Te Tai Tokerau party.

Kapa-Kingi has filed a party list, which - like Te Pāti Māori - means that if she were to be elected it would create an extra seat overhang for the left.

But, unlike the other parties, Kapa-Kingi has less resource to pull from to push her candidacy. A win for her would be an extraordinary result.

Put this in the unlikely basket for Labour.

Labour did win it in 2020, under the Ardern wave, but National's Carl Bates currently holds this seat with a 5512 majority.

This is a solid National seat, if Labour were to win here it would be because they've had an extraordinary election.

Maungakiekie has been a classic flip seat, going back and forth between National and Labour.

It's currently held by National's Greg Fleming, who's been a relatively popular first time local MP.

Labour is fielding Priyanca Radhakrishnan who has the potential to be a minister. She was the MP from 2020-2023.

National have been slightly impacted by the boundary changes but, with a majority of 4617, this is a seat they'd hope to hold on to.

So there you have it.

Overhangs to the left, overhangs to the right and 15 seats which have the potential to decide an election which all the polling suggests is sitting on a knife edge.