Labour leader Chris Hipkins won Tuesday night's TVNZ Leaders Debate in the eyes of viewers, with 44% of Vote Compass respondents who tuned in naming him the winner, compared to 25% for National's Christopher Luxon.
Another 21% said neither leader stood out, and 10% didn't know.
As expected, each leader did better with voters planning to back their party on November 7. But while Hipkins had the support of 86% of Labour voters, only 66% - just under two-thirds - of National supporters picked Luxon.
Vote Compass, run by Vox Pop Labs and 1News in partnership with Victoria University of Wellington, collected responses on October 6 and 7 from 6467 people who said they watched the debate.
The results broadly lined up with a poll of 100 undecided voters who followed the debate from TVNZ's atrium sharing their reactions through the night and giving the debate to Hipkins 49% to 24%.
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Hipkins led among both men and women in the Vote Compass results. Women favoured him 47% to Luxon's 23%, and men 41% to 28%.
Younger viewers leaned hardest towards the Labour leader. Half of those aged 18 to 29 said Hipkins won, compared with 17% who picked Luxon. The gap narrowed among viewers aged 65 and over, with 38% choosing Hipkins and 34% choosing Luxon.
Luxon recorded his highest result in Taranaki and Manawatū-Whanganui on 35%. Hipkins had his strongest results in Otago, where 57% named him the winner, and Wellington, on 53%.
1News political reporter Benedict Collins said both leaders had strong and weak points in their performances. (Source: Breakfast)
Party lines
In terms of their own voters, 86% of Labour supporters went for Hipkins and less than 1% for Luxon, with 13% saying neither or they didn't know. Among National supporters, 66% backed Luxon and 6% Hipkins with 28% saying neither or they didn't know.
Luxon gained mixed backing from supporters of his current coalition partners. More than half of ACT supporters (54%) said Luxon won. NZ First supporters were split, with 34% picking Luxon, 33% saying neither won and 22% backing Hipkins.
Will it change votes?
Just over a third of viewers (36%) said the debate was very or somewhat likely to influence their vote, while 59% said it was not very likely or not at all likely.
Undecided voters were more open to persuasion, with 40% saying the debate could sway them.
See where your views match with the parties' policies - 1News.co.nz/VoteCompass
Results are based on 6467 respondents to Vote Compass between October 6 and 7, 2026, who indicated that they watched the leaders' debate on October 6. Data were weighted to align the sample characteristics with those of the New Zealand adult population on the following characteristics: sex, age, ethnicity, education, and past voting record. A margin of error does not apply to non-probability samples. The modeled error estimate for the overall sample is ±2.1 percent, 19 times out of 20.
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