Opportunity continues to hold the keys to power and the Greens remain in a strong position to play a significant role in the next government, the latest 1News Verian poll results show.
With Opportunity set for 7% of the vote, and National leader Christopher Luxon having ruled out working with the party, today’s results point to a route to power for Labour.
National Party leader Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity. (Source: 1News)
The Greens would have 20 MPs if they maintain the 16% support they are on today in the election on November 7.
Opportunity's leader Qiulae Wong told 1News Luxon's stance on a coalition was a mistake.
"We've said very clearly there are lots of things that we could work with National on... this is just old school politics at play, and come election night, they might change their tune," she said.
But Luxon held firm today, citing Opportunity's policy for a land value tax. "We want to work with parties that want no new taxes. It's as simple as that," he said.
Watch the Leaders Debate between Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins on TVNZ 1 and TVNZ+ at 7pm
Both the right bloc of National, NZ First and ACT, and the left bloc of Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and Te Tai Tokerau, would have 58 seats in a 124-seat parliament based on today’s poll. Opportunity’s 8 seats would then be the decider for which coalition makes it over the line to form the next government.
If different assumptions are made about which parties win the Māori electorate seats, the right remains on 58 MPs, while the left drops to 54 in a 120-seat parliament. Both blocs can still form a government with Opportunity under that scenario.
But it’s not all bad news for National. They are up 1 point to 29% compared to last week’s poll and would have 35 MPs, while Labour are steady on 28% and would have 33 MPs.
There is little movement among the other parties, with NZ First up 1 point to 10%, ACT down 2 points to 9% and Te Pāti Māori steady on 1%.
Greens look to work with Hipkins
Political reporter Sophie Trigger takes a look at the parties that could form a left coalition. (Source: 1News)
Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick, reacting to today's results, said the party took "absolutely nothing for granted".
"The polls are going to continue to bounce around at the margins over the next few weeks, and this is why it's really important to understand that nothing is set in stone," she said.
On Opportunity, she said the Greens would work with any party they shared "common interests" with. Swarbrick said "very clearly" the Greens would work with Labour's Chris Hipkins to form the next government.
"But we would implore New Zealanders to think about the kinds of policies that they want to give the greatest weight to when it comes to forming government," she said.
Today's Verian poll also asked voters whether, given that a land tax was not one of Opportunity's bottom lines in coalition negotiations, National should keep or reconsider its position of not working with the party to form a government.
Around 40% said Luxon should reconsider, while 33% said National should hold firm and not work with Opportunity. More than a quarter, 28%, were unsure.
See where your views line up with the parties’ policies – 1News.co.nz/VoteCompass
The number of undecideds among the 1001 people polled between October 1 and 5 was down 2 points to 11%, suggesting voters may be starting to firm up their views.
Preferred PM, leaders react
Luxon remains just ahead in the preferred prime minister stakes, up 1 point to 20%. But, Labour leader Hipkins climbs 4 points this week to 18% to stay in touching distance.
NZ First leader Winston Peters is up 2 points to 9%, while Greens co-leader Swarbrick is down 1 point to 7%.
Ahead of tonight's TVNZ Leaders Debate, Hipkins said voters would see "a prime minister in waiting", adding "our numbers are going to grow significantly".
He said talks with Opportunity were "conversations to be had after the election".
Wong said earlier today the portfolios her party pursues will depend on who else is at the table. It would push for environmental roles in a right-leaning government, and business, innovation, commerce and consumer affairs roles in a Labour-Greens government.
Meanwhile Luxon said "there's only one poll that matters, and it's November the 7th".
"Our messages are getting cut through, and I think the choices are becoming increasingly clear by the day to New Zealanders," he said.
ACT leader David Seymour, said it was "a day of ups and downs". He claimed Opportunity had "peaked early".
Peters said he did not believe the poll. "Oh, you haven't seen the real poll that we've seen. If you'd have seen that, you'd be far more excited."
He also predicted Opportunity would fall short of the 5% threshold on election night. "They're the mainstream media's party, and you guys are no good at politics."
See the full poll results and methodology
Between October 1 and October 5 2026, 1001 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
SHARE ME