Explainer: The 1News Verian Poll now gives two approaches to the question of how Parliament might look.
Turning a poll result into seats in Parliament can often be more straightforward.
That's because, under the MMP electoral system, the party vote determines how many of Parliament's 120 seats each party gets, as long as it wins at least 5% of that vote.
The 5% threshold is why parties such as Opportunity, previously known as TOP, have polled in the low single digits for years without ever sending anyone to Parliament.
But there is, of course, a second way to get elected – when a party wins an electorate.
And a party that wins even one electorate seat gets its share of seats based on the party vote, however small that share is. This is known as the coat-tail rule.
In the past, it has kept ACT in Parliament via the Epsom seat and brought parties such as United Future into Parliament alongside their electorate winners.
Critically, if a party wins more electorates than its party vote would give it, the system keeps that party's extra seats.
Parliament grows to make room for these extra "overhang" seats, and they've occurred at multiple MMP elections.
Meanwhile, polls representing national opinion measure the party vote, not who is likely to win individual electorates. The Māori seats are where that matters a lot this election, with those seats in contention after a rocky period in Te Pāti Māori.
The party climbed three points to 16%, beating their previous high of 15% in July 2017. (Source: 1News)
Two scenarios about how to calculate seats
In its reporting of results, Verian has kept the traditional measure as its first scenario but also added a second which assumes only that any party that won an electorate in 2023 wins at least one again. For Te Pāti Māori, that is enough to count its party vote.
It's worth noting too that it isn't only minor parties that can trigger an overhang.
If National held all of its electorate seats gained in 2023, then it would also exceed its party vote entitlement at current polling of 28%.
Neither scenario assumes a blue overhang though, because a fall in party vote that large would usually cost a party some electorates.
The poll can't say who will win the Māori seats, therefore neither scenario is a prediction. But together they show how much those seats could shift the coalition maths for either the left or the right.
Scenario one: A bigger Parliament
The first scenario illustrates what happens if Te Pāti Māori keeps the four electorates held by its MPs and Te Tai Tokerau Party wins one. It's not a prediction that they will.
Neither party's party vote is enough to cover those seats, so Parliament grows by four overhang seats to 124. At that size, 63 seats would be needed to govern.
On those numbers, National, ACT and NZ First have 59 seats between them.
Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Te Tai Tokerau Party have 58.
Opportunity has seven.
Scenario two: 120 seats
The second scenario assumes any party that won an electorate in 2023, including Te Pāti Māori, wins at least one again. It does not include any overhang.
That gives Te Pāti Māori just one seat and keeps Parliament at 120, with 61 needed for a majority. The centre-right bloc stays on 59, while the left bloc drops to 54.
Several things are the same in both scenarios. National and Labour are tied on 34 seats each, the Greens have 19, ACT 14 and NZ First 11.
The Opportunity Party, on 6% of the party vote, takes seven seats in each version. Neither bloc reaches a majority in either scenario without Opportunity's MPs.
The election will be held on November 7, with advance voting starting on October 26.
TVNZ has extensive coverage of the election campaign. (Source: TVNZ)
See the full poll results and methodology
Between September 23 and September 27 2026, 1004 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (503) and online using online panels (501). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.4%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
SHARE ME