The Green Party has climbed to its highest level ever in the latest 1News Verian poll, recording support that would give them 19 MPs if repeated in November’s election.
The Greens' surge to 16% comes as National and Labour continue to drop, with both the big parties on just 28%.
That would give them 34 seats each in the next Parliament.
The results, which come the day after Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins launched their election campaigns, indicate the left bloc could govern if the Opportunity Party goes with a Labour-led coalition.
The bloc of Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity would have 65 seats, compared to 59 for the right bloc of National, NZ First and ACT.
Luxon appears to have ruled out National working with Opportunity because of its tax policies, while Labour says it wouldn't agree to those policies in a coalition deal.
With these poll results, there would be an overhang in Parliament of four extra seats above the standard 120. That is calculated on the basis that Te Pāti Māori holds on to its four electorate seats and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi holds the seat of Te Tai Tokerau.
An alternative calculation of the Māori seats gives Te Pāti Māori just one seat, Te Tai Tokerau none and leaves all other parties unchanged with no overhang and a total of 120 MPs in Parliament. The left bloc remains able to form a coalition under this scenario.
Labour has dropped in today’s poll by 2 points since the last 1News poll in August, with 28% being its lowest result since February 2024.
National has also fallen, though by less, dropping by 1 point. The last time National polled at 28% was in the final 1News poll before Judith Collins lost the party’s leadership in 2021.
As well as the Greens rising by 4 points since August, ACT is up 2 points to 11%, and NZ First is up 1 point to 9%. Opportunity fell 2 points to 6%, though they remain above the 5% threshold to get into Parliament without winning an electorate seat.
A total of 13% of the 1004 voters polled between September 23 and 27 said they were undecided on which party to vote for, or refused to say.
Reaction to the latest 1News poll
Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the result was "pretty cool", but the party was taking nothing for granted.
"I say the same thing whether the polls are up or down, which is that we shouldn't just watch the polls, but realise that New Zealanders have agency. Nothing is set in stone."
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong said the result showed a "solid base of support", and she pitched the party as the vote for stable government.
Wong said the poll showed "a real discontent for the major parties", and that Opportunity would announce its bottom lines "very soon".
Asked what he would do to lift National's polling, party leader and PM Christopher Luxon said: "The only poll that matters now is November the 7th."
Asked about the Greens' surge, Luxon again turned to the choice he said faced voters: "It is Labour and their radical mates with six leaders and nine new taxes up against National with no new taxes and a long-term plan to grow this economy."
Labour leader Chris Hipkins said he would not discuss deals with other parties before election day. "But the stronger Labour's vote, the stronger the government I will be able to form. Only Labour can lead a change of government."
Asked about Labour's nine-point drop over three polls, Hipkins said: "It's going to be a very close election, and we're going to be fighting for every single vote that we can get."
ACT leader David Seymour said the result showed minor parties were "going to be critical". "Building the ACT Party will ensure that the coalition is competitive," he said.
NZ First leader Winston Peters stuck to his long-standing view of polls.
"I know I've said it for a long time, but this time particularly, the polls are trash," he said.
Preferred PM
Among the leaders, it is better news for National than for Labour.
Christopher Luxon is up 2 points to 19% in the preferred prime minister rankings. Chris Hipkins drops 1 point to 14%.
Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick is up 2 points to 8%, NZ First’s Winston Peters is steady on 7% and ACT’s David Seymour is up 2 points, also on 7%.
TVNZ has extensive coverage of the election campaign. (Source: TVNZ)
Meanwhile, economic optimism has climbed, with 44% of voters expecting the economy to improve over the next 12 months - up 5 points since August.
Those expecting it to get worse fell 3 points to 27%.
The election will be held on November 7, with advance voting starting on October 26.
See the full poll results and methodology
Between September 23 and September 27 2026, 1004 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (503) and online using online panels (501). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.4%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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