Beef mince prices have hit a record high, with the formerly go-to protein for budget shoppers grinding past $24.40 a kilo and unlikely to ease before 2027.
The record price is more than 30% higher than it was just two and a half years ago.
Rabobank senior animal protein analyst Jen Corkran said prices were likely to remain elevated well into 2027.
It's a staple of the Kiwi diet, but the biggest price increase for mince in decades may leave people paying more for their traditionally cheap lunch. (Source: 1News)
"Historically it's been a real go-to red meat option because it is very versatile in terms of what you can do with it, but now it's not really the cheap option it once was."
Incredibly strong demand for New Zealand trim beef, particularly from the United States, had helped to drive a rapid rise in local retail prices, she said.
"This is, of course, great for Kiwi beef exporters, but it’s much less welcome news for shoppers looking to keep their weekly food bill down."
White meats are rare winner
As mince prices surge, the price of other proteins has stayed relatively flat in comparison.
Chicken breast was averaging $14.80 a kilo and pork loin chops $16.70 a kilo, with chicken now slightly cheaper than it was in early 2024.
Corkran said the pricing gap was already reshaping the fast-food sector overseas, with burger chains under pressure from rising beef costs.
"In food service, and especially within quick service restaurant (QSR) channels where burgers are a core traffic driver, operators are increasingly challenged by beef cost inflation," she said.
She pointed to McDonald's New Zealand as a local example, noting the chain introduced several new chicken items to its menu in 2025, including the Chicken McCrispy and Chicken McWings.
Persistently high beef prices raised the risk of shoppers trading down to cheaper proteins such as chicken, though there was no local evidence Kiwis had beefed up their poultry purchasing just yet.
"At this stage we're yet to see any evidence of lower demand for beef mince here in New Zealand but, at some stage, we think there will be a point where the consumer says these high prices are getting too much for me, and this might prompt a more concerted switch to either smaller volumes purchased or lower priced protein options."
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