The Trump administration is expected to sign an agreement with Saudi Arabia that could potentially provide the kingdom with uranium enrichment capability for its civilian nuclear program. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says any deal signed by the US would not lead to proliferation.
The deal — confirmed to The Associated Press by two people familiar with the decision who were not authorised to discuss details and spoke on condition of anonymity — could allow the building of a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia after a joint US-Saudi study.
Though he wouldn’t confirm the deal, Rubio sought to head off emerging criticism of the decision under questioning by reporters about the risk that helping the Saudis fulfil their long-standing desire to enrich their own uranium could lead to new rounds of nuclear proliferation and competition in a volatile region.
"The US is not going to reach any agreement with any country in the world that leads to the risk of proliferation," said Rubio, who was traveling in the Philippines on Thursday.
The agreement is not expected to include the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol, which would allow for more monitoring, inspections and verification, according to one of the people familiar with the decision.
The deal, which would last 30 years and involve US firms in developing the program, is expected to be submitted for review to Congress, where it could face opposition.
The expected announcement comes during the war against Iran launched by the US and Israel, in part, to wipe out Tehran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran has insisted its nuclear enrichment program is peaceful.
The White House and Saudi officials in Riyadh did not immediately respond to multiple requests for comment on the decision, which was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Alexander Bollfrass, a nuclear expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, called the deal “a revolutionary new approach” to nuclear nonproliferation policy.
"The revolutionary aspect of this agreement is that the United States is not asking Saudi Arabia to abide by the highest possible safeguards, internationally monitored safeguards that are standard and are available today, but instead is willing to at least theoretically transfer highly sensitive technology without the same level of oversight that one would expect," Bollfrass said.
Both President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden tried to reach a nuclear deal with the kingdom to share American technology.
Enrichment could open the door to weaponisation
Nonproliferation experts warn any spinning centrifuges within Saudi Arabia could open the door to a possible weapons program for the kingdom, something its assertive de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has suggested he could pursue if Tehran obtains an atomic bomb.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright travelled to Saudi Arabia last year shortly before Trump visited and discussed building out the kingdom’s commercial nuclear power industry with his Saudi counterpart. The US Department of Energy has not responded to multiple requests for comment.
Already, Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact after Israel launched an attack on Qatar targeting Hamas officials. Pakistan’s defence minister then said his nation’s nuclear program "will be made available" to Saudi Arabia if needed, something seen as a warning for Israel, long believed to be the Middle East’s only nuclear-armed state.
Some lawmakers are hesitant about giving Saudis enrichment capability
Enrichment isn’t an automatic path to a nuclear weapon — a nation also must master other steps, including the use of synchronized high explosives, for instance. But it does open the door to weaponisation, which has fuelled the West's concerns over Iran’s program.
The United Arab Emirates, a neighbour to Saudi Arabia, signed what is referred to as a "123 agreement" with the US to build its Barakah nuclear power plant with South Korean assistance. But the UAE did so without seeking enrichment, something non-proliferation experts have held up as the "gold standard" for nations wanting atomic power.
Rubio, as a Republican senator representing Florida, backed a bipartisan 2018 proposal that called for requiring Congress to approve any 123 agreement with Saudi Arabia. The bill was reintroduced by a group of Democratic lawmakers in March but has not passed into law.
Typically, 123 agreements — which authorise US companies to sell nuclear technology abroad — go into effect unless veto-proof majorities of Congress pass joint resolutions of disapproval.
Rosemary Kelanic, the Middle East director at Defence Priorities, a Washington think tank, said that uranium enrichment capability could give Saudi Arabia "a potent source of leverage to extract future concessions from Washington, including new security guarantees, by threatening to weaponize its program unless the United States promises enhanced military protection.”
"Giving Riyadh uranium enrichment could functionally enmesh the United States with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia forever," Kelanic added.
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US firms could be winners in expected deal
Rep. Brad Sherman, a California Democrat, predicted the expected deal would benefit US nuclear giant Westinghouse, which builds the large light-water reactors Saudi Arabia is seeking.
The Trump administration said last month it is providing US$17.5 billion (NZ$30 billion) in loans to speed development of 10 new large nuclear reactors designed by Westinghouse to meet skyrocketing power demand from massive data centres. The new reactors could use the same design, Westinghouse’s AP1000, in the planned Saudi deal.
Sherman said the US military is "bombing Iran because they insist upon enriching and reprocessing" nuclear material.
Now it appears that US officials "are entering into an agreement with Saudi Arabia, giving them the green light to reprocess and to enrich, and the only difference I see here is that Westinghouse stands to make an awful lot of money on this deal, whereas the Iranians were not enriching American companies," Sherman said at a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing Wednesday.
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