Auckland's housing market is soft and Wellington's is worse but the Real Estate Institute says the best way to describe activity at the moment is flat.
By Susan Edmunds of RNZ
It said the national median sale price in June was $770,000, up 0.7% compared to last year but down 1.3% from the month before.
There were 5996 properties sold – down 2.9% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month.
The house price index, which smoothes out variation in median sales price caused by the types of properties being sold, was down 0.8%.
Real Estate Institute chief executive Lizzy Ryley said the market was settled.
She said, out of the 35 June months since 1992, this June was 23rd for sales activity.
"It's relatively steady. Looking at what a lot of different sources are saying in the market, some sort of implying that things are trending south at a rate of knots, it's actually not. It's relatively stead. The economic forces are just balancing the market."
She said the South Island was still stronger than the North Island and Wellington was "really struggling".
Wellington's house price index was down 1.4% over one month, 4.5% over a year and still almost 30% below the peak.
"You could say Auckland is struggling but, if you look at it compared to Wellington, it's not struggling as much."
Auckland's house price index was down 3% year-on-year.
Ryley said Auckland's drop in sales, down 5.6% on a year earlier, was a sign of buyer and seller caution. Auckland's turnover was down 13.3% month-on-month.
"We've got the election coming up and I think people are just going 'hang on a minute, I'll wait and see'. Listings and inventory are still reasonably strong. People are there, they're just on both sides being very cautious about what they agree to at this point in the economic cycle."
She said Christchurch's market was stronger. Canterbury prices were up 0.6% in a month and 4.1% in a year.
Ryley said any predictions that New Zealanders were likely to start to think less of property as a way to build wealth in future were likely to be wrong.
"Anything that has been systemic for such a long time, it's not going to shift that easily unless the election brings a radically different environment for New Zealand or context. But I don't think that will happen either."
Inventory increased year-on-year in 13 of the 15 regions tracked. Auckland and Wellington had experienced 29 consecutive months of year-on-year inventory growth.
Infometrics said the sales decline from May was 1.7% when seasonally adjusted. Chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said this made it the first time since 2022 that sales numbers had fallen for four consecutive months.
"June data shows the continuing effects of the Iran War on demand in the housing market, with buyers cautious in the face of economic uncertainty, cost pressures on household budgets, and rises in fixed mortgage rates since the start of this year."
He said the elevated supply of properties for sale and choice for buyers would keep prices under pressure for some months yet, even if sales picked up.
ANZ said rising interest rates, election uncertainty and the conflict in the Middle East were likely to keep prices subdued through the year.
"Still, looking through the monthly volatility, average nationwide house prices have been almost exactly flat over the first six months of the year rather than drifting down as per our forecast... The balance of risks is now towards prices staying close to flat this year or declining only very slightly."
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