National Party faithful are confident in its chances this election, but acknowledge it's going to be tight, and one member told RNZ she could not understand "how people can have either forgiven or forgotten the damage that Labour did."
By Lillian Hanly of RNZ
The party's 90th annual general meeting was taking place in Lower Hutt, Wellington this weekend. Five hundred members gathered on Saturday alongside MPs and staff from the party.
National's leadership rallied those in attendance, preparing them for the work ahead to "fight for every party vote".
It came as National remained steady at around 30% in most polls, with Labour slightly ahead. Labour was also leading as the party New Zealanders consider most able to handle the cost of living, according to the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor survey.
RNZ spoke to members to get a sense of how they were feeling ahead of the election campaign.
David Farrar - a National party member and the owner of the party's traditional pollster Curia - told RNZ he was "nervously optimistic" about the election.
He pointed to the tight race in the polls to explain the nervousness. In terms of National polling around 30%, Farrar said MMP was having an impact.
"National's not going to be at that 45-50% range they used to be, but yes, as a National supporter, I'd rather they were higher than 30."
At the last election-year AGM in 2023, National's last AGM in opposition, the party set the membership a goal of hitting 45% of the party vote at the election. National ended up getting 38%.
Farrar said 45% had been an "aspirational" goal. Asked for his aspirational goal this election, Farrar said 35% would be a "pretty good result."
"That would get you quite clearly into the forming government and also retaining reasonably sized caucus list MPs.
"Obviously, the official target will be somewhere higher than that, but for me, 35 would actually be not too bad a result."
Other members were not worried about the party polling around 30, saying "it's early days" and there was a lot of ground to cover.
But speaking on the Ipsos survey, one member said she was concerned Labour was ahead on various issues such as health and education. She said people were "looking at the wood and not seeing the trees".
Another said the party membership was feeling good but they were worried about "the public".
"That means we cannot understand how people can have either forgiven or forgotten the damage that Labour did.
"I understand that times are tough, and it's easy to blame the government, but I can't see how they see that the alternative is Labour and the policies that have come out," explaining that she did not need free GP visits and would rather that go to people who did need them.
"They've had three years to come up with policies and they've shown the leopard spots haven't changed."
She also said the government was right to be restrained in its Budget this year.
"We're not in a position to be spending very much at all, and if we do, we're just further indebting the future."
Another member thought the National party was doing "amazing work" and wished the media would consider that work "in an honest way".
She referenced "improvements" in the health system, education and business and the marketing abilities this country now had, "thanks largely to the prime minister and the rest of the team", though would not specify details of those improvements suggesting there was not enough time.
The only reason the improvements were not "showing a hell of a lot" was because of "Mr Trump".
She also said "Labour destroyed" the health system and the education system.
"These guys have had to spend three years trying to first of all remove the crap before they could start rebuilding."
She wanted to see National unshackled by minor parties, but said it had worked reasonably well.
"I'd like to see them have more power, though, to do what they want to do.
"I know how limited they have been," she said, but that Luxon had done an "amazing job" managing the coalition.
Another member said he believed National had more support than "the polls are showing". He said the party had been doing "business as usual, which is what the country needs".
Members also told RNZ they were happy with the current leadership.
Speculation about Luxon's leadership had quietened down of late, though that didn't stop minister Matt Doocey congratulating Erica Stanford - often tipped as a possible leadership contender - on the many rounds of applause she'd received on Saturday.
"It's been great to be part of the Erica Stanford fan club meeting today," said Doocey.
Luxon was relaxed on the day, and energised. He thanked a range of his ministers, including a special shout out to "the man hosting us", Chris Bishop - another leadership contender.
"One of the hardest working people I know," Luxon said.
Luxon will be making an election policy announcement on Sunday, expected to be related to the economy.
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