At least 1100 properties would be vacated in South Dunedin if new council proposals to respond to climate change risk, go ahead.
The South Dunedin Future project’s latest reports published today also said new properties could be added in safer locations by the end of the century, preventing a net loss of dwellings.
The project’s latest modelling suggests that, if the status quo continued in flood-prone South Dunedin, climate hazards would be causing more than $200 million in damage, every year, by the end of this century.
The South Dunedin Future project, run by the Otago Regional Council and Dunedin City Council, was currently the most extensive climate change adaptation plan of any New Zealand residential area.
South Dunedin is home to 13,5000 people, with 6000 households and 1000 businesses.
Council reports present a gloomy forecast with a bill running into billions to resolve. (Source: 1News)
Programme manager Jonathan Rowe, while briefing media, said: “The property acquisition – most of it would need to occur in the first 25 years. So, it's not tomorrow, but also there's a lot of work to do.”
Some properties in South Dunedin were currently less than 1m above sea level.
The South Dunedin Future project has been refining three options for climate change adaptation with the council expected to choose one later this year.
One option, "protect", focused on raising land and pumping water out.
Another called "restore" focused on making space for water and wetlands, and "reshape" was a combination of both.
Reshaping involved acquisition of more properties than the other two options – more than 1700 – but added 2000 in safer areas, by the end of 2125.
The budgets for the projects ranged from $1.63 billion to $2.45 billion but that was less than the cost of the status quo, and less than earlier models expected.
Sam Olley updates the situation in Otago, where fears are held for low-lying areas of South Dunedin and Mosgiel. (Source: TVNZ)
Rowe said: “Broadly if you spread the costs over equally over a 100-year period, it's 8% of the [Dunedin City Council] capital budget for around 10% of the population. But typically, infrastructure's lumpy – you wouldn't spend the same amount in every year.”
Rowe said in a follow-up media release, that from the latest reports: “The encouraging finding is that, even as flood hazards increase, it is feasible to significantly reduce risk – potentially to levels comparable to, or lower than, today.
“The locations shown in the technical reports are based on current information and are indicative only. Specific properties would be confirmed later, after detailed project design. Any final decisions would be made by councils, after considering community feedback and further technical advice.”
Council maps provided today suggest properties most likely to be acquired would in the lowest lying areas around the western end of Forbury Rd, Musselburgh and around King Edward St.
The release said if property acquisition was required, this would follow established council processes and approvals and be subject to available funding.
The release also said the current intention is that any acquisition would be undertaken over time, on a voluntary basis where possible, at market value, and in accordance with relevant legislation.
The properties acquired would be mostly used for public works like green spaces and canals, to manage water.
Depending on council approval next week, consultation on the options will start July 1.
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