Perth and Brisbane, in particular, have seen a property price surge. Is that good news for Kiwi homeowners? Ed McKnight reports.
Sydney’s median house price has climbed to almost NZ$2 million in June 2026, according to Cotality. The median house price now sits at AU$1,579,396 AUD.
For a typical house, that number makes even Auckland look cheap. The median sale price for a house in Auckland now stands at NZ$1,090,000.
But while Sydney’s median house price grew 3.9% in the 12 months to May 2026, other cities are running even hotter.
House prices in Perth climbed 24.5% over the last year, and in Brisbane they’re up 19.5%.
That’s enough to leave many homeowners in New Zealand looking enviously across the ditch, not just at higher wages, but at a frothier housing market.
But if Australian house prices boom, does that mean New Zealand is next?
The answer is not simple.
History suggests New Zealand often follows Australia’s lead. However, a boom across the Tasman does not automatically mean Kiwi cities are about to take off in the same way.
Though what Australia's housing market can tell us is something more useful.
Australia is ahead of us in the cycle
Australia didn't experience the same extreme rollercoaster as New Zealand during Covid.
Their house prices rose about 22% during the pandemic. In New Zealand, prices skyrocketed by roughly 42%.
Kiwi homeowners might have felt great at the time, but it came with a downside. We had a bigger property boom. But we also experienced a larger house price correction.
When interest rates started rising, New Zealand's market had much further to fall. House prices nationally are still around 15% below their peak. In Auckland, they're down more than 20%.
Australia went through a smaller downturn, with house prices falling 13%. But they reached the recovery stage sooner, whereas the New Zealand housing market has gone through a series of false starts.
Migration and confidence are driving growth
Australia also has several tailwinds that New Zealand homeowners would love their country to enjoy.
Migration is one of them.
At its peak, net migration was adding more than half a million people a year to Australia's population, adding roughly 2%. That has since eased closer to 1%.
New Zealand also briefly had net migration, adding about 2%, but today, that has fallen to roughly 0.5%.
The Australian economy has also proven more resilient.
Its unemployment rate is sitting at 4.3%, compared with New Zealand’s 5.4%, and New Zealand’s is still rising.
That gives Australian households more confidence, helps support lending, and makes buyers more willing to stretch to purchase a property.
New Zealand and Australia tend to move together
New Zealand does not copy Australia’s housing market exactly.
Though research from ASB found New Zealand and Australian house prices have often moved in similar directions. Typically, New Zealand lags Australia by six to nine months.
That makes Australia useful to watch.
Not because Sydney house prices directly push up Auckland house prices, but because both countries respond to many of the same forces: interest rates, migration, bank lending and confidence.
New Zealanders have been purchasing more properties. The number of property transactions has broadly recovered.
Just under 59,000 homes were sold in a year at the weakest point of the market.
Today, that number is hovering just under 80,000. That’s very close to the long-term average of about 82,000 homes sold per year.
More homes changing hands does not mean prices will automatically rise. But it does show the market is moving again.
Listings are also being absorbed more quickly than in the past. At the worst point of the downturn, New Zealand had about 31 weeks’ worth of homes sitting on the market. Today, that has fallen to around 22 weeks.
None of that is turning into higher prices across the entire country. Having said that, some property markets have quietly recovered. Property values in Invercargill City, Queenstown-Lakes, Christchurch City and Southland are now higher than they were at the peak of the market in 2021 and early 2022.
New Zealand is not about to boom. But there are signs that the market is recovering.
Don't expect a Perth-style boom
While New Zealand does tend to move in the same direction as Australia, it’s usually with less intensity.
A 24% boom in Perth doesn't mean Auckland is about to jump 24%.
However, housing markets on both sides of the Tasman are responding to similar forces.
Australian house prices are already seeing that play out. New Zealand isn't there yet.
But many of the early signals of a housing recovery are beginning to emerge.
Ed McKnight is an Auckland-based economist and property investment advisor.
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