Analysis: The competition is celebrating its 30-year anniversary but the vibe just seems off in 2026, suggest 1News writers Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry.
PM: Scotty, We’re just over halfway through the round-robin of Super Rugby Pacific; what does your gut tell you about the state of this year’s competition?
I ask because the recent top-of-the-table clash between the Chiefs and Hurricanes, which turned into an extra-time thriller, seemed to fly under the radar in terms of media and general interest.
Do you think fans are as engaged as in previous seasons?
SS: That’s a great question, Pat. I have been struggling to find a way to articulate the vibe because there doesn’t seem to be one. Saturday night’s top-of-the-table clash was pitched as a remedy to the prevailing state of fan indifference but, despite the finish you allude to, the game itself didn’t reach its promised heights. It should have, given the number of tantalising individual match-ups, but it seemed to be stuck in third gear.
Stylistically, the game here appears to be at a crossroads where attacking intent intersects with an adherence to robotic structure. It’s as if the higher the stakes the firmer the shackles on spontaneity and reflex – two foundational elements of the best matches and historically treasured assets of New Zealand’s best players.
Consequently, the game often feels chaotic and claustrophobic all at once; thirty frogs released in a box.
There are still moments to cherish, but there is so little hype that the highlights don’t burn as brightly as they should. There is a sense of sameness, which belies the fact this competition has been genuinely close.
The Highlanders' comeback on Friday night was pure entertainment, the Reds have been a joy to watch, the Drua doing over the Brumbies in Canberra was not on the bingo card and the Force have played with the kind of flair that deserves a better time zone.
All that said, I’m not sure what fans are waiting for? Is this more a rugby problem than a Super Rugby problem?
PM: Good points – and I agree with you. I think what the fans are waiting for is the playoffs. The top six of 11 teams making the playoffs always means there is little jeopardy in the round-robin until the later stages. It is a flawed system and it will probably change next year due to Moana Pasifika’s likely demise, which I’ll get to later.
Regarding whether this style of game is a rugby or Super Rugby problem, I say the latter. Watching the recent Six Nations was a reminder of the level the game can get to and how good it can be as a spectacle. I know that’s Test rugby and the stakes and therefore the intensity are all far higher, but, and I have written about this, the way the game was refereed in that competition made it a far better ‘product’, in my opinion. There was a genuine contest for possession, which is the essence of the game.
Without getting too bogged down with the detail, if the defending team is in the hunt at the breakdown in terms of turning the ball over, more players will be sent to it, which creates space elsewhere.
I believe Super Rugby’s obsession with a fast game is tarnishing the product. Match officials are turning a blind eye to attacking teams’ illegal actions at the breakdown to help achieve “flow”. What we’re getting instead is that chaos mixed with the robotic-like structure you mentioned in your opener. That is not a good combination.
The Super Round at Christchurch’s new stadium this weekend will bring a welcome lift to the vibe and it is a timely boost after the revelations about Moana Pasifika’s impending closure due to the franchise’s financial issues.
Do you agree with my summation? And what’s your view on the Super Round – which will take place without the Force – and Moana’s troubles?
SS: I do agree, Pat. Rugby’s contest for possession on the ground is what differentiates it from all other oval ball codes. Without it, the game ceases to remain true to itself. I am all for the game removing unnecessary stoppages but I believe the point you are making is the ideology of speed in Super Rugby has collided rather brutally with the law of unintended consequences.
The game should be infatuated with space, not pace.
As for the Super Round, I am genuinely excited to see Christchurch have this weekend. I have been a regular visitor to the Garden City with cricket duties over the past six years and have watched Te Kaha emerge from the ground to command a central position in a city reborn. As you know, it has been a long road to get to this point, and I'm thrilled the Crusaders will open the weekend on Friday night in front of a packed house.
I know the NRL's equivalent "magic round" has been a great success and hopefully both New Zealand and Australian fans will take to this weekend as well. Super Rugby needs to find its voice in the choir of codes it competes with, and it will be a great boon to the season to have something fresh and new to watch. I am sure viewer numbers will be outstanding, and here's hoping the atmosphere at Te Kaha and in the city carries the day.
A sense of occasion is what the competition desperately needs, outside of the playoffs you mentioned.
As for the sad demise of Moana Pasifika, we can't pretend we're surprised. As long as this competition remains a high-performance entity for the respective unions of New Zealand and Australia, outsiders will always struggle.
Do you see any viable way back for them?
PM: Sadly, no. They were up against it from the start and were marginalised in terms of finding a home base which impacted on their ability to build support and momentum. Their close rivals the Blues certainly didn’t help but they have their own battle to fight. I just can’t see anyone wanting to pick up the tab, which involves a fair amount of debt, now.
The game here will be poorer for it and I have no doubt that the NRL will become more popular for young Pasifika players and supporters as a result. Manu Samoa and Tonga will also be weakened as Moana’s players go offshore.
Meanwhile, on the competition side of things, the Hurricanes and Chiefs appear set to go deep into the playoffs, while the defending champion Crusaders are again riven by inconsistency.
Who’s your metaphorical money on at this point?
SS: You’re right about the Crusaders. They’re in line to be on the wrong side of an Aussie sweep which would put a dampener on Friday’s festivities. After the weekend I would have to favour the Chiefs, but I’m not going to sleep on the Canes or the Blues for that matter.
Beauden Barrett appeared to have a bit more spark against the Highlanders, and game managers get the job done in play-off footy. I know the Blues can’t be conceding 40 points if they want to be considered contenders, but they have some seriously gifted athletes.
The Chiefs have great squad energy and could probably claim to have the best finishing potential in the game. Wallace Sititi showed his value off the pine on the weekend, and selecting outside combinations each week must give the coaches some serious headaches. Damian McKenzie can be unnecessarily flighty but continues to produce clutch moments, even while flying a tad too close to the sun.
Of the blokes across the ditch, the Brumbies and Reds both have big assignments this week taking on the Canes and Blues respectively. I can’t figure out how to read the Brumbies, given their inconsistency this year (though their last visit to Christchurch was impressive) and I am inclined to think the Reds’ attacking style will be a handful for the Blues, in the same way the Highlanders were able to open plenty of cracks at Eden Park.
The Waratahs need the win more than the other two, but they’ll need to be absolute party poopers to pull that off.
To simplify: Chiefs slightly, but Canes will be favourites still with the bookmakers.
You?
PM: I’m not a great predictor of results, so I’m going to hedge my bets and say one of the Chiefs, Hurricanes or Blues will win the title. The Chiefs are certainly due after their previous three failures in grand finals. I’m still not sure how they failed to win last year. The uncertainty of it all is healthy for the competition, but as we’ve discussed, it’s just not quite landing at the moment.
Finally, if Moana aren’t around next year it will be a 10-team competition which will likely set up a home and away round-robin between every team – the best and fairest format, obviously. Presumably, it will also set up a top-four playoffs system but one shouldn’t deny Super Rugby’s ability to find new finals formats to keep the Aussies happy.
An optimist would suggest a fairer and potentially higher-stakes round-robin will increase interest from the start. A pessimist might say next year’s World Cup in Australia will dominate the landscape even more than this year.
Sum up your thoughts, if you would, Scotty.
SS: I’ll finish with a final thought to take us back to the original moot.
This competition needs stars and to make stars you need stories. And I don’t mean the ones you post on social media.
Super Rugby’s players, coaches, and administrators need only look across the Tasman to understand the value to the NRL and AFL of a seven-day news cycle. The competition should be courting every column inch and broadcast minute it can, but it still seems blissfully ignorant of its lack of genuine reach beyond the 80 minutes.
That directly impacts on the interest in the 80 minutes. The game is piled high with compelling, human-interest stories that are so often either untold or deemed off limits.
If we want to feel connected to the game, we need to feel connected to those playing it. There are more than 250 lads in Super Rugby squads in this country alone. We shouldn’t just be talking about the handful that get to wear a national jersey.
SHARE ME