A National-ACT coalition would have the numbers to govern if an election was held today, a new 1News Kantar Public poll reveals.
But voters are still not sure Christopher Luxon is the best man for the top job, with only 18% selecting him as their preferred prime minister.
For 25% of respondents, Labour leader Chris Hipkins is preferable.
1News political editor Jessica Mutch McKay has our latest poll, less than five months out from election day. (Source: 1News)
The Green Party has been punished by would-be voters, dropping from 11% in the last poll to 7%, disastrous for any hopes of a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori coalition which had the numbers to govern at the last poll.
Te Pāti Māori has also dropped slightly, from 2.6% on the party vote to 2.4%.
The National Party has gained 3 points to rise to 37%, and Labour has dropped 1% to 35%. ACT has remained steady on 11%, with its leader, David Seymour, enjoying a modest lift in preferred prime minister stakes from 6% to 7% - his highest in the last seven 1News Kantar Public polls.
Assuming Waiariki MP and Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi retains his seat, the party vote percentages translate to 47 seats for National, and 15 for ACT - a total of 62, just one seat more than the number needed to secure a coalition government.
Labour would get 46 seats, but an agreement with the Greens (9 seats) and Te Pāti Māori (3 seats), would still only total 58 seats - not enough to secure a third term for the sixth Labour Government.
The last 1News Kantar Public poll in March showed Te Pāti Māori in the kingmaker role, with a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc reaching the threshold to form a government.
Since then, there had been a series of political scandals, including Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson's comments that cis white men were responsible for most of the violence in the world, shortly after having been hit by a motorcycle, Stuart Nash's sacking, Meka Whaitiri's defection from Labour to Te Pāti Māori, and Elizabeth Kerekere's resignation from the Green Party after being caught calling a colleague a "crybaby" in a text sent to the wrong group chat.
It also follows a National Party education policy release, a report which showed the wealthiest New Zealanders pay a lower effective tax rate than other taxpayers, and the revelation food prices were up more than 12% on the previous year - the biggest annual increase in 30 years.
The National Party also declared it would not work with Te Pāti Māori.
The polling period - May 20 to 24 - followed the release of the Government's 2023 Budget on May 18 - a document the Government called "balanced" and "pragmatic" but the National Party called tantamount to a "resignation letter" from Finance Minister Grant Robertson.
Party vote
National - 37% (up 3%)
Labour - 35% (down 1%)
ACT - 11% (steady)
Green - 7% (down 4%)
New Zealand First - 3% (down 0.1%)
Te Pāti Māori - 2.4% (down 0.2%)
The Opportunities Party - 1.4% (up 0.4%)
Seats in the House
Assuming Rawiri Waititi retains Waiariki:
National - 47 seats
Labour - 46 seats
ACT - 15 seats
Green - 9 seats
Te Pāti Māori - 3 seats
Preferred prime minister
Chris Hipkins - 25% (down 2%)
Christopher Luxon - 18% (up 1%)
David Seymour - 7% (up 1%)
Winston Peters - 2% (down 1%)
Chlöe Swarbrick - 2% (up 1.1%)
Jacinda Ardern - 1% (down 1%)
See the full poll results and methodology here.
Between May 20 and May 24, 2023, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (502) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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