During the build-up to the All Blacks’ unique Test against the Springboks at Twickenham a week on Saturday the two nations’ rivalry going back 100 years will inevitably be mentioned.
But nothing will dominate the selection speculation like the intrigue over whether the coaches will seek to protect their best players from injury and foul play suspensions that could threaten their World Cup participation which kicks off a fortnight later.
A serious knee injury to France playmaker Romain Ntamack, which has ruled him out of the tournament, and a looming foul play ban for England’s serial offender Owen Farrell, is a reminder as to what is at stake here, traditional rivalries be damned.
Ntamack suffered his injury in what appeared to be an innocuous collision during France’s 30-27 victory over Scotland in Saint Etienne at the weekend, with Farrell sent off for a high tackle against Wales during England’s 19-17 victory at Twickenham.
Both matches were designed to get players up to speed for the World Cup. In Ntamack’s case, France’s most influential player (apart from halfback Antoine Dupont) will now not be taking part.
The Farrell situation will be clearer after his judicial hearing tomorrow. He is facing a six-week ban, although given World Rugby’s inconsistencies in applying suspensions, it wouldn’t surprise to see him get four weeks or even less. Either way, the involvement of England's current captain in the four pool matches is tenuous.
Neither of these latest developments will surprise All Blacks head coach Ian Foster or likely change his selection strategy for the match against the world champions, but for the rest of us the match-day squad of 23 will put into sharp focus what Foster and his fellow selectors Joe Schmidt and Jason Ryan are prepared to risk.
The All Blacks may consider themselves a little fortunate to have been able to name their best players in their squad of 33.
Yes, veteran lock Brodie Retallick has been included despite a knee injury that will rule him out of the first two pool games at least, but Retallick’s ability to rehabilitate a problem and bounce back almost as good as new is well known.
Midfield utility Braydon Ennor is one of the unluckiest (along with long-term casualty Sevu Reece), having injured a knee during that same Test against the Wallabies in Dunedin, but Foster will consider his midfield well covered – and the same applies to injured prop Joe Moody and loose forward Ethan Blackadder, both of whom ran out of time after hurting themselves again.
But one of the things highlighted by the All Blacks' 23-20 victory over Australia in Dunedin recently is the gap between the All Blacks' top tier players such as halfback Aaron Smith, first-five Richie Mo’unga, the Barrett brothers, and the next best.
Smith and Mo’unga played the second half of the comeback win over the Wallabies, but Scott, Jordie and Beauden Barrett all sat it out and their absence was significant.
The Barretts' last match was the week before against Australia in Melbourne so are presumably due to play against the Boks, but the trio have become integral to the All Blacks’ hopes at the World Cup and so their involvement at Twickenham must be considered a risk.
Retallick’s injury has made Scott Barrett even more important, and while the pack improved significantly after the break in Dunedin as the All Blacks’ faced a 17-3 deficit, the calm game management brought by Smith and Mo’unga cannot be underestimated.
A serious injury to either would be disastrous for the All Blacks’ hopes in France.
It’s a delicate balancing act. Injuries are part of the game – ask Richie McCaw, who played the 2011 World Cup with a broken foot (an injury suffered, incidentally, by over-training), or Dan Carter, who tore a groin muscle practising his goalkicking during it.
Foster and company would have come under big scrutiny had the All Blacks lost to the Wallabies after making 13 changes to their squad from the week before.
But imagine the furore if the selectors name their strongest side at Twickenham and Mo’unga suffers a knee injury or Scott Barrett is shown a red card.
At this point, most of us could confidently predict Foster's match-day 23 for the opening World Cup match at the Stade de France - not so for the Boks game.
Given the importance of that match and those following, picking that team may be the most challenging task Foster faces all year. The squad leaves for London from Auckland on Friday.
SHARE ME