Analysis: TVNZ rugby gurus - 1News Sport presenter Andrew Saville, TVNZ sports commentator/writer Scotty Stevenson and 1News digital sport reporter Pat McKendry - put their heads together ahead of tomorrow's World Cup squad announcement to predict the 33 All Blacks who will be named.
With the dust settling in Dunedin following yesterday's Bledisloe Cup Test, players in the All Blacks camp face a nervy wait for tomorrow's Rugby World Cup squad announcement in Napier at 5pm.
Coach Ian Foster will name 33 players for the campaign in France having stormed into 2023 with an impressive run in the Rugby Championship with big wins over Los Pumas, the Springboks and Wallabies.
The impressive performances across the board throughout the Rugby Championship have created some selection headaches for Foster and his team but also brought back some hope for Kiwi rugby fans ahead of the tournament after a few years of turbulence.
So who will make the cut? Who will miss out? And just how did Foster get this All Blacks outfit rolling so well to start 2023?
Saville [Sav], Stevenson [Sumo] and McKendry [Pat] have offered their thoughts on those burning questions as well as the biggest one of them all - just how far can this All Blacks squad go in France?
Here's what they had to say:
How have the All Blacks started this year so strong?
Sav: Couple of key factors here. Consistent selections - Ian Foster told us some time ago they would stick with the same team, barring injuries, for the majority of the pre-World Cup campaign. They’ve stuck to their guns and it’s paid dividends.
They’ve also stripped back their game. There's much more intent and direct play at the breakdown, a lot more patience and big improvements in the scrum and maul defence as well as well as a much more precise kicking game. The continued influence of Joe Schmidt, Jason Ryan and the coaching group as a unit can’t be underestimated.
Sumo: They look to have bought in to a style of play that extracts the best from their collective skill sets. That’s a simple formula.
Pat: Putting it simply: a better set piece, led by assistant coach Jason Ryan, along with an improvement in running into contact [in terms of body height and running lines], a simple game plan that everyone appears to be across, and some in-form players.
There will be question marks about the strength and quality of Argentina, South Africa and Australia, but the All Blacks struggled against them all last year. So far this term they seem to have far more answers [and some improvement to come].
Who has stood out to you in the All Blacks’ Tests so far this season?
Sav: There have been standouts across the board. The forward pack as a unit has clicked and complimented each other. Clearly Scott Barrett, despite an immense workload, has lifted. Richie Mo’unga appears completely comfortable now at this level and has taken the backline by the scruff. Will Jordan has been outstanding with his direct running and ability to switch from early receiver to the outsides. Having a three pronged attack is causing major issues for opponents.
Sumo: Plenty of candidates, but Scott Barrett has been immense, as has Will Jordan. Richie Mo’unga is gaining confidence and Beauden Barrett looks like he is enjoying his rugby again. Individuals have stood up, but the cohesion of the team has been the stand-out factor.
Pat: Codie Taylor, Scott Barrett, Shannon Frizell, Jordie Barrett and Will Jordan. Scott Barrett has been spectacular [and seems to be getting quicker around the field], while Will Jordan hasn’t missed a beat despite his long recent layoff. An honourable mention, too, for Richie Mo’unga and the way he is leading the attack. He once struggled to transfer his Super Rugby form to the international stage but is now playing with far more confidence: a spinoff, one suspects, of the pack’s performances and a game plan that finally suits him.
Who do you see as potential bolters in this year’s squad? Are there any?
Sav: No. There will be no shift from outside the 36/37 picked for the Championship and Bledisloe. Add in the returning injured players like Ethan Blackadder and David Havili and the selectors will need to leave out at least half a dozen used this season.
Sumo: None that haven’t already been selected this year.
Pat: I can’t see anyone joining from outside the Rugby Championship squad [and they have to trim that by three to get to 33], apart from returns from injury for midfielder David Havili and loose forward Ethan Blackadder. Havili is the more likely of that pair given he is already playing for Tasman.
What about big-name omissions?
Sav: There’s a clear bottle neck in a few areas. If Joe Moody comes back, someone like Nepo Laulala is under threat. Will there be room for four out-and-out wingers? If so, if he’s fit, and if the split selected is 18 forwards and 15 backs, Emoni Narawa could still make the cut. The unlucky Quinn Tupaea, a strong, direct ball-runner, looks set to miss out in the clogged midfield.
Sumo: Caleb Clarke may have a little sweat on, and the prop stocks provide a slight conundrum: Nepo Laulala banks on experience but others may jump.
Pat: Caleb Clarke: it’s a crowded field and it’s difficult to see how he gets in ahead of wing rivals Will Jordan, Leicester Fainga’anuku and Mark Telea. Also, midfielders Jordie Barrett, Rieko and Braydon Ennor are capable wings.
How far do you see the All Blacks going at this year’s World Cup?
Sav: Given what we’ve seen so far this season, they clearly have the talent and gameplan to go all the way. BUT we’ve all been around long enough to realise all bets are off when World Cup attention and pressure comes on. The tournament is standalone, then there’s one-off, knockout playoff games, where anything can happen. Add in the spectre of refereeing decisions and injuries and the breath will probably still be held from September 9th on!
Sumo: There is no reason the All Blacks can’t go all the way. Yes, they have good teams to get through, but they look as if they are emerging from a period of being gun shy. All Blacks teams are at their best when they are dominant through innovation.
Pat: Previously a quarter-final against South Africa or Ireland looked like a tall order given this All Blacks team’s vulnerability against big and combative packs and defences. They’ve finally shown something in this World Cup cycle, though, so I can see them beating a Boks team under pressure to defend their title or an Irish team which has never won a World Cup playoff match. If they do they should go all the way to the final.
Potential All Blacks RWC Squad
Props: Joe Moody, Fletcher Newell, Ofa Tuungafasi, Tamaiti Williams, Tyrel Lomax, Ethan de Groot
Hookers: Codie Taylor, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Dane Coles
Locks: Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Tupou Va’ii
Loose forwards: Sam Cane, Dalton Papali’i, Ardie Savea, Luke Jacobson, Shannon Frizell, Ethan Blackadder* [or Samipeni Finau]
Halfbacks: Aaron Smith, Finlay Christie, Cam Roigard
First-fives: Richie Mo’unga, Damian McKenzie
Midfielders: Jordie Barrett, Rieko Ioane, Anton Lienert-Brown, David Havili, Braydon Ennor
Outside backs: Will Jordan, Leicester Fainga’anuku, Mark Telea, Beauden Barrett
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