The latest 1News Kantar Public poll will be revealed tonight, the first poll since Budget 2023's release.
The last poll, in March, showed a bump for the Green Party but a slump for National Party leader Christopher Luxon. It placed Te Pāti Māori in place to secure a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori coalition.
It showed Labour would likely attract 36% of the party vote to National's 34%. In terms of seats in Parliament, that translated to 46 seats for Labour and 43 for National, presuming Waiariki MP and Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi retained his seat.
Neither major party had the numbers to govern alone as a majority government.
Tonight's poll, released on 1News this evening at 6 and on 1News.co.nz, follows a series of political scandals, including Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson's comments cis white men were responsible for most of the violence in the world, shortly after having been hit by a motorcycle, Stuart Nash's sacking, Meka Whaitiri's defection from Labour to Te Pāti Māori, and Elizabeth Kerekere's resignation from the Green Party after being caught calling a colleague a "crybaby" in a text sent to the wrong group chat.
It also follows a National Party education policy release, a report which showed the wealthiest New Zealanders pay a lower effective tax rate than other taxpayers, and the revelation food prices were up more than 12% on the previous year, the biggest annual increase in 30 years.
The polling period, May 20 to 24, followed the release of the Government's 2023 Budget on May 18 - a document the Government called "balanced" and "pragmatic" but the National Party called tantamount to a "resignation letter" from Finance Minister Grant Robertson.
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