Balance. How many times have we heard Grant Robertson utter the word in describing the 2023 Budget?
The Finance Minister faced the unenviable task yesterday of trying to weigh his short term political incentives with the realities of high inflation and a tricky economy.
The net result is that from a political perspective, we find ourselves in a similar position to that in which we started. And as far as the Finance Minister is concerned, it’s probably the best he could have hope for.
The truth is, as much us those of us in the news business might like to think otherwise, most New Zealanders don’t agonise over the minutiae of the Government’s spending plans (Did someone say Fiscal Strategy Report?! Please, tell me more!).
Twenty hours free childcare education has now extended to 2-year-olds, but won’t start until next year. (Source: 1News)
Voters might pick on a vibe, a whiff, or a general sense of direction, but in the absence of sensational new spendups and in the hands of a centrist government, budgets are usually pretty stable affairs.
The specific policies covered in Grant Robertson’s new topline spending announcements are difficult for the opposition to criticise.
National’s Family Boost policy would provide a weekly childcare tax rebate of up to $75 per family. But while they no doubt prefer their own policy to the Government’s plans to extend free ECE, it’s hard to picture National aggressively criticising subsidised childcare in an election year.
“Luxon delivered plenty of Facebook-ready zingers which underscored National’s central criticism of the Government
The same rule applies to the extension of free prescriptions, KiwiSaver contributions for women on maternity leave, and the extended subsidies for public transport. Is National really going to argue that primary school students should have to pay full price to take the bus?
Rather than focusing on the specificity of Labour’s new topline spending announcements, National sees much more fertile ground in criticising the overall government spend.
It is currently available to three to five-year-olds. (Source: 1News)
Crown spending has increased substantially since Labour came to power and is still much greater relative to GDP than before the Covid-19 pandemic. With every increased basis point in the Offical Cash Rate, Grant Robertson will face a battery of criticism that he’s the one to blame.
Christopher Luxon faced the also-highly-unenviable job of making a 20-minute speech to respond to the Budget, with little over an hour to actually digest the detail.
I felt Luxon did a good job. He was punchy and strong, and in an environment where parliamentary speeches are increasingly designed to win eyeballs on social media rather than actual debates, he delivered plenty of Facebook-ready zingers which underscored National’s central criticism of the Government’s approach.
The big fiscal challenge in this year’s budget was how to ease the cost of living crisis without making the problem worse.
The National leader criticised the Government for having no ideas to "drag New Zealand out of the economic hole". (Source: 1News)
There may well prove to be inflationary effects from the quantitative effect of increased government spending, although childcare, transport and energy costs are all covered in the Consumer Price Index, which measures New Zealand’s rate of inflation. A return to surplus has been delayed at least another year.
But ultimately the people most concerned by these impacts were unlikely to have been voting for Labour, anyway. And the new topline spending doesn’t include many examples of arguably-frivolous and easily-attackable policies (a cycle bridge over the Waitematā, for example).
The 2023 Budget won’t have cost Labour any votes. It probably won’t have won them many, either.
I guess we can call that balance?
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