They’ve lost an MP. They’ve been accused of being ‘shackled’. But Labour figures there’s no point in fighting back if it costs them the election.
The National Party’s decision to publicly rule-out a future support deal with Te Pāti Māori was a no-brainer.
It simply crystalised in press release form what MPs of all stripes already knew. National, Act, and Te Pāti Māori were never going to work together in government next term.
For now though, Christopher Luxon has held off a similarly assertive pronouncement regarding New Zealand First. Although Nicola Willis was a senior advisor to John Key when the former Prime Minister ruled out working with Winston Peters, for now National is reluctant to shut off too many paths to electoral power.
After the events of the last two weeks, Luxon is betting that the prospect of a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori government will ultimately cost Labour some support.
Given the somewhat chaotic nature of Meka Whaitiri’s defection, expect National and Act to campaign aggressively on a promise of relative stability. We await the 2023 version of National’s 2014 ‘rowboat’ ad...
Of course, refusing to rule out working with NZ First and Winston Peters theoretically opens up National to the same criticism – a prospective ‘coalition of chaos’. But NZ First’s return to parliament is much less certain than Te Pāti Māori’s, and National and Act are flirting with a parliamentary majority on their own.
On the other side of the aisle, current polls show a similar level of support for Labour and the Greens, with the potential support of Te Pāti Māori enough to form a government.
Under MMP, if Te Pāti Māori wins several more of the Māori electorate seats than the Waiariki seat they currently hold, it will not impact Labour’s total allocation of MPs, so long as the party vote remains unchanged.
Of course, there is a massive ‘if’ in all of this: the party vote, which under MMP is absolutely critical.
Add to that, the electoral prospects of The Opportunities Party. If Raf Manji was to win the Ilam electorate, TOP could feasibly enter a support agreement with either Labour or National.
Five months from the election, it’s in National’s interests to highlight the potential instability of a three-party coalition government.
It’s in Labour’s interests not to contribute to perceptions of instability by harshly criticising Meka Whaitiri, invoking the waka-jumping provisions, or too aggressively contesting the Māori electorates.
It sets up a curious tension. If Te Pāti Māori wins several of the Māori seats, it won’t actually directly impact Labour’s total number of MPs. But if voters are uncomfortable with the prospect of Te Pāti Māori in government and it costs Labour a few percentage points in the party vote, the consequences for Chris Hipkins are potentially dire.
No wonder Labour doesn’t want to rock the boat.
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