When Jacinda Ardern announced her impending resignation as Prime Minister, my initial reaction was that it was a selfish decision.
She'd chosen to preserve her stellar international reputation over risking the humiliation of an election defeat. She'd put herself before her party.
I've since been forced to accept my initial response was totally wrong.
The transition from Ardern to Chris Hipkins has been so smooth, so bereft of tension or public disunity, that Labour has enjoyed a sustained boost in the polls.
From the Labour Party's perspective, Ardern's final meaningful act of leadership may ultimately prove to be one of her most significant. The Teflon succession might deliver Labour a third term.
It could have been so different.
Often, when major parties have a sudden leadership vacuum, individual ambitions come into conflict with broader interests.
Caucuses become factionalised as MPs scramble to better their individual positions and prospects.
There is an alternative scenario in which Ardern's resignation split the Labour caucus. Many of the backbench Labour MPs who were voted into Parliament in 2020's historic election now face the likelihood of being turfed out in October.
Five years after it began, the former prime minister speaks of her challenges and triumphs as New Zealand's premier. (Source: 1News)
If leadership contenders had actively contested Ardern's place, backbench MPs would have seen an opportunity to win themselves another term in Parliament.
It's easy to picture a scenario in which leadership contenders were sifting through the caucus, promising better list placings to MPs in exchange for their support.
Instead, the whole process played out publicly without drama, sniping, or horse-trading. There was barely a flicker of disunity. Ten weeks since Hipkins became Prime Minister, the most memorable thing about the leadership contest is how unmemorable it was.
In 2016, John Key's resignation as Prime Minister resulted in a messier transition, even though his caucus had fewer MPs in tenuous positions than Labour has today. And of course, we need only reflect on National's more recent history for evidence of how a divided caucus hurts a party's prospects.
Much of the credit for the successful handover belongs to senior ministers who decided not to publicly contest Ardern's place. Grant Robertson and Michael Wood are the most prominent examples.
Read more: 'I won't miss the weight' - Jacinda Ardern opens up on her life in politics
But the switch had been in the works for some time before Ardern made public her decision, and her close relationships with Hipkins and Robertson and her careful timing and management of the announcement were critical in what was ultimately a remarkably frictionless transition.
Ardern leaves Parliament with a mixed legacy. From a policy perspective, she failed to achieve her publicly stated aspirations. She didn't really come close. But she faced extraordinary challenges, and memories of her crisis leadership will endure.
Ultimately, history will record that when many democracies elected autocratic populists, New Zealand's Prime Minister was a young woman espousing empathy and kindness.
And perhaps her final move as leader deserves a little more credit. Unlike Helen Clark, who perhaps did not give enough consideration to her own succession as Labour leader, Ardern's final move significantly improved her party's electoral prospects.
Come October, it's quite likely Labour wouldn't have won if Ardern was still the party leader. But they also couldn't have won without her leadership.
Q+A with Jack Tame is on TVNZ 1 at 9am on Sundays. It is public interest journalism funded by NZ on Air
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