One of the first lessons you learn in journalism school is that people care more about things happening near them. The closer the better: we care more about a school fete in Grey Lynn than one in Peru. Academically, as a news value, it’s called proximity.
This week has been a week of proximity. Climate change has come to us.
Many of us likely thought catastrophic climate change-related floods would come to Bangladesh or the Netherlands. Not to Hawke’s Bay.
Climate change has been “seen as something affecting the polar regions or the penguins,” former Green MP and political commentator Gareth Hughes said.
But now, the majority of New Zealanders have a “very personal climate change story”.
“It’s literally smacked the country in the face.
“It’s no longer academic. It’s deeply personal.”
That means it’s still going to be “top of mind” come polling day in October, he said.
Hughes - who is no longer a member of any political party - believes the cyclone and the floods preceding it will “skyrocket” climate change to the fore as an election issue, just as the 2019/20 Australian bushfires is said to have mobilised the so-called “teal” (conservative green) vote.
The bushfires have been at least partially credited with helping elect six independent teal candidates in the 2022 Australian federal election.
“What you’ll see is an energetic campaign based on climate change from the Greens. I’m sure the Greens will be calling it the climate change election.”
So far, however, so predictable - a former Green MP is going to say that, and there’s a reasonable case that in every election the Greens have contested, the party has attempted to position it as the climate change election.
But Hughes said an upsurge in voter interest in climate change would place pressure on National, which he said had not yet delivered clear policy on climate change. Voters would want to see the receipts on that - not a unique criticism of National at the moment, with its current policy vacuum across the board.
However, Labour would also have to show how it would “plug the gap” in the country’s carbon budget after it opted to continue the fuel excise tax subsidy and scrap the biofuels mandate.
“Voters are going to demand greater ambition.”
Political commentator and former senior ministerial advisor for the last National Government Brigitte Morten isn’t so sure the teal turnout in Australia would apply in the New Zealand political environment.
New Zealand had a different political landscape, and was less polarised on climate change issues, with bipartisan support on climate change blooming, she said.
The weather events would make the Green Party feel more “empowered” and would have the freedom to take a more “activist” stance on the issue, she said, but Labour would be under more pressure to deliver practical solutions.
That would make its political positioning much more difficult because practicalities were more fraught.
An example of that was Labour having to confront the thorny issue of climate adaptation - including managed retreats and who pays for that - something Morten said would be “tricky legally” and would require deft politics to balance.
Morten said she didn’t think there would be a turnout of single-issue climate change voters, and in any case, many of those would have voted Green in the past and would continue to.
ActionStation climate justice organiser India Logan-Riley (Kahungunu) said they believed the majority of people were concerned about climate change and wanted to see something done about it.
However, corporations and politicians had “leveraged the fear of insecurity, whether that be housing or livelihood insecurity, to stall meaningful action on climate change”.
They believed the appetite and need to address “climate colonialism” was growing due to the country feeling its effects firsthand.
“Thousands have marched in the streets, blockaded extractive projects, and made submissions for this liveable future we deserve and that will only grow until it is achieved.
“These disasters are a glimpse into what could happen if we don’t embrace transformational change. People shouldn’t have to continue to die for the bottom line.”
Ultimately, whether the election hangs over climate action or not will be down to how close voters feel to it and how long their memories are - after all, it's all about proximity.
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