Cyclone Gabrielle to bring 'real memorable impacts' - NIWA

Cyclone Gabrielle is set to bring "some real memorable impacts" to the worst-affected parts of the North Island, a NIWA meteorologist said this morning, adding those impacts are "at the mercy" of the storm's track.

Chris Brandolino, NIWA's principal scientist for forecasting and media, told Breakfast "it's been an incredible summer and this may be the cherry on top, unfortunately, so to speak".

He said "there is a growing potential that the centre tracks a little bit farther east" but "it's not etched in stone".

"If that were to occur... that could be a little bit good news for Northland and Auckland," he said.

"But if that were to occur, that good news for some people could be bad news for others and that means areas farther east and south like the Bay of Plenty, like Gisborne, they could see more significant impacts than perhaps otherwise."

And Brandolino stressed that cyclones are "not a point, they're an area".

"We have to watch the track, that's really the key... those impacts are really gonna be at the mercy of that track.

"Where the worst weather goes, there's going to be some real memorable impacts unfortunately," he said.

"We're talking a lot of rain; perhaps what would normally fall in a month, that amount may be double that, so we're talking 100 [to] 150mm of rain in say, a day or two.

"The winds will be quite strong as well, we're talking the potential for some pretty significant power outages," Brandolino added.

And there will be significant waves caused by the weather event as well, with coastal flooding and inundation possible if those waves come from the north-east in particular, he said.

But it's "very unlikely" anyone would be up to their chest in water, like during the Auckland flooding two weeks ago.

"Hopefully the track goes far enough east where it spares us the worst of the impacts, but it's just unclear right now."

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Asked when the bad weather would pass, Brandolino said conditions may improve by Wednesday.

"And perhaps later next week we get into a more settled period."